"Quad has potential to play greater role if China invades Taiwan": Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation fellow Sana Hashmi

In an interview with ANI from Taipei, Sana Hashmi, Fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, shared her insights, noting that the alliance is being closely watched in Taipei and has the potential to play a greater role if China invades Taiwan.

Providing a crucial perspective from Taipei, Hashmi highlighted how closely Taiwan monitors the grouping, viewing it as a critical counterweight against a profound existential threat.

"Now, from Taiwan's perspective, Quad is the only arrangement, grouping, multilateral within the Indo-Pacific region that is indirectly dealing with the China threat," Hashmi explained.

"And for countries such as the US, for India, for Australia and Japan, it is a security threat, but it is not an existential threat. But for Taiwan, China is an existential threat," she underscored.

Hashmi stated, "And so there is an alignment of interest between Quad and Taiwan. So absolutely, Taiwan is watching Quad and the activities within Quad very keenly. And I think eventually, if it has to happen, it is the only grouping that has the potential to play a greater role if China has to invade Taiwan."

Unpacking the wider dynamics of the quadrilateral alignment, Hashmi strongly dismissed claims that the four-nation grouping is losing traction and emphasised its long-term institutional durability. Reflecting on the scepticism that frequently surrounds the security grouping, she emphasised that the current mechanisms are far more robust than their historical counterparts.

"No, I think there are a lot of speculations about or claims about Quad being dead or Quad being dormant. And then there is some precedence in what happened in 2007 and 2008. But I think this is far from reality," Hashmi stated.

She explained that the alignment has fundamentally transformed into a durable mechanism tailored to the strategic requirements of its member nations.

"What we are seeing right now is something that is much more evolved and transformed and much more aligned with the interests of the four countries. So I do not really see it being dead anytime soon. And in fact, the US Secretary of State is in Delhi," she added.

Underscoring the diplomatic weight behind the New Delhi engagement, Hashmi pointed out that the presence of the top American diplomat serves as a key testament to the grouping's vitality, urging observers to look beyond mere leadership-level interactions.

"And one of the major reasons for him being in Delhi is to participate in the Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting. And this is a very important indicator of how important Quad is. And also, we do not really have to look at how and what is happening at the leadership level," Hashmi noted.

She further observed, "If Trump is coming to India to attend the Quad, if leaders of the four countries are meeting, I think it is irrelevant. And I think we need to pay more attention to the foreign ministers' meeting, to the working groups. And I think this is such an important indicator that Quad is just going to be much more important than ever before."

Addressing the geopolitical realities shaping the region, particularly after recent high-profile diplomatic engagements in Beijing, Hashmi highlighted that the underlying security concerns remain unchanged.

"And in fact, if we look at what has happened in the past one year, and Donald Trump just visited China, I think the reality is much more nuanced than the simplistic understanding of Trump meeting Xi, Trump going to China. And, you know, we have to understand the Indo-Pacific is very much there," she remarked.

According to Hashmi, the glue that binds the four nations together remains heavily tied to the strategic challenges posed by Beijing.

"And the four countries have real concerns. And there is a common thread. And that is, of course, the China threat," she stated.

Looking at the immediate outcomes of the New Delhi ministerial, Hashmi noted that while a joint stance on regional challenges is inevitable, the framework encompasses a much broader horizon.

"So I feel, and also you asked this question about the outcomes and what is going to happen after the meeting. And I think the main point of discussion is, of course, China. And the durability of the Quad, I think, is very much there, as we all can see," Hashmi said.

She added, "Tomorrow, we'll have a photo of the four foreign ministers, the discussion, and, of course, there will be a statement after that also. But I think China is, of course, a major factor, but I think it is much bigger than China. There are a number of strategic factors that are driving the Quad and that are driving the interest and willingness of the four countries to cooperate."

When asked about the Quad's expansion beyond its foundational maritime security framework into technology and wider geopolitical spheres, Hashmi underlined that maritime focus remains absolutely paramount, especially given Beijing's naval expansion.

"So I think the first question here is, is it moving beyond the maritime dimension? I think even focussing on the maritime dimension is so very important, specifically when countries such as China are looking at developing blue-water capabilities and the PLA becoming a blue-water navy," she asserted.

Hashmi praised India's pivotal role in anchoring this specific dimension within the multilateral dialogue.

"So I think we need to really focus on the maritime capabilities of the four countries and coming together, forming a coalition, a cooperative arrangement where the four countries could actually secure the waters, the immediate waters, as well as the Indian Ocean region and beyond the Indian Ocean region," she explained.

She further noted, "And in fact, if you look at it, India is the only country that is injecting the maritime component within the quadrilateral dialogue."

"India hosts the Malabar exercise, which more or less is now a de facto Quad maritime exercise. So I think it is absolutely moving beyond one sector. But I think what is there is absolutely a continuity, and that is the focus on maritime security," Hashmi added.

She observed that the group's cooperation has naturally broadened into non-traditional security realms over recent years, establishing them as vital regional stakeholders.

"And I don't think that is going anywhere as of now. And, of course, there are other factors as well. There are other sectors as well where countries are looking at," Hashmi said.

"We have seen during the COVID-19 pandemic how the four countries came together and became important stakeholders in health security as well. So, of course, the four countries are coming together, becoming more resilient to focus on Indo-Pacific security. But then, of course, it goes beyond and moves beyond the traditional security issues as well," she detailed.

Highlighting the timing and venue of the Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting, Hashmi stated that the New Delhi summit sends a strong signal regarding Washington's long-term commitment to its partnership with India.

"And the next issue is how important is the New Delhi Quad meeting? I think it is very, very important. And also, we have to look at the timing. We also have to look at the location where it is happening," she remarked.

"It is just happening after the visit of the US President to China. So this is also an indication from the US side that the US is willing to repair ties with India. And the Indo-Pacific remains an important area for the US as well," Hashmi pointed out.

She further added, "And then the US is not just leaning towards China. Of course, there is this idea that the US has to cooperate and compete with China. But at the same time, there were other issues that the US is still focused on."

"And the US is way bigger than Trump. So I absolutely believe that this is an indication and this is a signal that India, New Delhi, is very important for the US. And India's centrality in the Indo-Pacific within the Quad is very crucial and very important to understand," Hashmi emphasised. "And I think this is one of the reasons why tomorrow's meeting is crucial."

On the question of India's long-standing status as an indispensable anchor in the Indo-Pacific strategy for Washington, Tokyo and Canberra, Hashmi noted that this strategic realisation has been cemented over the last decade.

"I don't think it's a new development that India is seen as an indispensable or formidable power in the Indo-Pacific," Hashmi said.

"I think, in fact, for the past 10 years, this is a realisation that has been very much there. Of course, when Trump came to power again, there were some hiccups in India-US relations, but at least from Australia's perspective and Japan's perspective, India has been very important. And with that, Quad is also very important," she observed.

She stressed that India's presence is fundamental to the very definition of the region's geopolitical identity.

"And to maintain stability in the region, freedom of navigation, Quad is important. And Quad cannot exist, Indo-Pacific cannot exist, without India. And I think this is a message that is very clear from all three capitals' engagement with New Delhi and also the Quad meeting," she added. (ANI)