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India's Beauty & Personal Care (BPC) market could nearly double from USD 23 billion in FY26 to USD 42 billion by FY31E, making India the fourth-largest BPC market globally by 2030, according to a report by Aditya Birla Capital.
The domestic BPC sector is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12 per cent. The report highlighted that the total runway for expansion remains significant, given that active BPC shoppers currently represent only about 15 per cent of the country's broader internet user base. The shopper base is expected to climb from 140 million in FY26 to 200 million by FY30E. A key demographic shift will accompany this expansion, with Gen Z and Gen Alpha consumers projected to account for nearly 50 per cent of total sector spending by FY31E, up from roughly 32 per cent in FY24. This growth trajectory is supported by an expanding consumer base, the broadening of personal grooming routines, and the continuous market share gains made by organised retail formats. "Beauty purchase decisions are increasingly made before the consumer reaches the checkout page or store. Reviews, creators, product claims, ingredients, and efficacy now play a larger role in discovery," the report noted. The retail structure will continue to operate as a multi-channel ecosystem where buyers choose specific avenues depending on the nature of their transaction. Online market salience is forecast to increase from 25 per cent in FY26 to 34 per cent by FY31E, while organised offline retail is expected to grow its share from 27 per cent to 32 per cent over the same period. Under this structure, quick commerce is positioned to secure replenishment orders, while specialised vertical platforms remain key for product discovery, assisted purchases, and premium merchandise. "Digital advertising, marketplaces and contract manufacturing have made it easier to launch a beauty brand," the report stated. The number of new-age brands generating annual revenues above Rs 1 billion is anticipated to jump from between 70 and 80 in FY26 to more than 150 by FY31E. However, industry dynamics indicate that scaling past higher benchmarks presents operational hurdles. "We believe only a small number would build enough repeat purchase and distribution to cross Rs 10bn revenue. Revenue scale alone is not enough. Companies that drive repeat purchases, control A&P, and improve margins as they grow should command a higher valuation," the report observed. The report noted that while reaching modern consumers has become relatively straightforward due to digital infrastructure, driving sustained customer retention without proportionally increasing advertising and promotion expenses remains difficult, positioning profitability and repeat orders as the primary determinants of long-term business value. (ANI)
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