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The Indian rupee is expected to remain volatile in the near term and may stabilise in the range of Rs 92.50 to Rs 93.50 against the US dollar, amid continued pressure from rising crude oil prices and sustained foreign investor outflows says experts.
The rupee recently hit an all-time low of 95.23 on Monday, reflecting sharp volatility in both onshore and offshore currency markets. The weakness in the domestic currency comes as Brent crude prices remain above USD 100 per barrel and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to pull out funds from Indian equities. According to market data, foreign investors (FPIs) have sold equities worth Rs 1,31,122 crore in March alone, adding significant pressure on the rupee. The rupee showed some recovery on Tuesday, opening at 93.58, supported by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) directive to cap the net open position in the onshore market at USD 100 million by April 10, 2026, but soon the pressure mounted and the rupee touched the 95 mark. Currency expert K N Dey told ANI on Tuesday that, "The rupee touched yesterday at an all-time low of 95.23 after witnessing a huge volatility in the onshore and the offshore currency markets. Rupee opened yesterday at 93.58, quite strong from the previous Friday's closing on account of the RBI's new directive." He added, "Such a huge volatility on the last working day of the Financial year, I have never seen in over 4 decades. Yesterday at times the spot arbitrage between onshore and offshore touched more than 30 paisa." Dey further said that while volatility is expected to continue till April 10, it may not be as extreme as witnessed recently. "Going forward keeping the war aside, rupee is likely to settle around 93.50 to 92.50 range. But if the war escalates higher then rupee's strength would be limited," he noted. Echoing similar concerns, V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said that the RBI's move has helped curb excessive speculation in the currency market. "Even though the RBI directive will curb excessive speculation in the futures market, this is not sufficient to prevent the weakness in the currency which stems from the rising trade and CAD triggered by the spike in crude and sustained FPI selling in the market," Vijayakumar added. Experts believe that while regulatory measures may provide short-term relief, the rupee will continue to face pressure from global factors such as elevated crude prices, geopolitical tensions and persistent capital outflows. (ANI)
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