Benign commodity prices pull down January thali cost: Crisil report

The decline in the cost of a veg thali was driven by a sharp fall in the prices of onion, potato, and pulses, while elevated tomato prices limited the decline.

According to the report, about 39 per cent lower crop arrivals in January led to a 50 per cent rise in tomato prices on a low base of last year to Rs 46/kg in January 2026 from Rs 31/kg in January 2025.

Onion prices fell 27 per cent year-on-year due to higher stock levels and subdued exports. Potato prices fell 23 per cent year-on-year, as lower yields in the previous season (Jan-Dec) had pushed prices higher, creating a high base.

Prices of pulses declined 14 per cent because of increased stocks in the current fiscal, led by higher imports of Bengal gram (imports rose by nine times on-year in fiscal 2025), yellow pea (85 per cent rise) and black gram (31 per cent rise) allowed until March 2026, despite imposition of minor duties.

Vegetable oil prices surged 4 per cent year-on-year due to tighter global soyabean oil supply, leading to higher domestic oil prices.

Additionally, a 6 per cent year-on-year increase in the price of liquefied petroleum gas cylinders limited the decline in the overall cost of thalis.

The cost of a non-veg thali fell by an estimated 13 per cent on-year due to a 13 per cent drop in broiler prices--which account for 50 per cent of the cost--on a high base. Lower prices for onions, potatoes, and pulses also contributed to the decline.

Month-on-month, however, the cost of veg and nonveg thalis declined 2 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively, in January.

Tomato and potato prices dipped 8 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively, supporting the decline, while wheat flour prices rose 5 per cent on speculation over potential relaxation of export restrictions, limiting the decline.

The cost of a non-vegetarian thali declined due to an estimated 4 per cent month-on-month fall in broiler prices.

The average cost of preparing a thali at home is calculated based on input prices prevailing in north, south, east and west India. The monthly change reflects the impact on the common man's expenditure. The data also reveals the ingredients (cereals, pulses, broilers, vegetables, spices, edible oil and cooking gas) driving the change in the cost of the thali.

Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence, said "While the cost of the vegetarian thali decreased because of a sharp fall in onion, potato and pulse prices, elevated tomato prices limited the overall decline. Prices of onions and pulses softened due to higher stock levels, while potato prices fell on account of a high base. In contrast, tomato prices increased due to a low base from last year.In the medium term, onion prices are expected to remain stable to slightly firm until fresh rabi supplies arrive around March. With the onset of fresh rabi arrivals, prices of both potato and tomato are likely to remain capped. Prices of pulses are expected to stay under pressure owing to healthy imports of yellow peas at prices nearly 35 per cent lower than the domestic levels. Consequently, landed prices remain competitive even after a 30 per cent import duty." (ANI)