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The broader consumption demand in the country may take one or two more quarters to recover fully, according to a recent report by Axis Securities.
The report provides an overview of the Q1FY26 earnings season and highlights key factors influencing the market. It stated that the first quarter of FY26 was marked by several important developments. These included geopolitical tensions, volatility in crude oil prices, interest rate cuts, unseasonal rainfall, supply chain disruptions, and improving liquidity. These events have created a mixed trend in earnings performance, similar to what was observed in previous quarters. Some improvement is expected in the first quarter of FY26 due to better performance in certain high-frequency indicators. However, the report noted that overall consumption demand across sectors will still take some time to return to normal levels, possibly in the next one or two quarters. It stated "the broader consumption demand could still take one or two quarters to get back on track". The report also mentioned that most of the concerns related to earnings have already been priced in, and the intensity of earnings downgrades is likely to slow down from now on. However, the market is still a quarter or two away from seeing potential upgrades. The report believed that most of the meaningful improvements in the market and corporate performance are expected in the second half of the current financial year, driven by a possible uptick in economic activity. In terms of sector performance, the report said that improvement is likely in areas such as Telecom, Financials, Materials, Oil & Gas, and Industrials. On the other hand, sectors like Auto OEMs, Utilities, and Metals may continue to face pressure. At present, macroeconomic risks are expected to influence market direction for the next few months. The report adds that while most of the uncertainties related to trade are now behind us, the upcoming earnings season will be crucial. According to the report, management commentaries and forward guidance from companies during the results will play an important role in shaping market sentiment going forward. (ANI)
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