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Despite equity market underperformance triggered by geopolitical tensions, global investment firm Invesco has expressed cautious optimism on India's economic outlook for 2026, citing progress on domestic reforms, scope for improved US-India relations and monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
In its 2026 Annual Investment Outlook, Invesco said India is expected to remain the world's fastest-growing large economy, with growth likely to modestly accelerate next year as interest rate cuts begin to support domestic demand. The firm noted that while near-term market sentiment has been weighed down by global uncertainty, India's medium-term fundamentals remain resilient. "Despite equity market underperformance amid geopolitical tensions, we are cautiously optimistic on India in 2026, due to ongoing reforms and signs of stabilisation and room for potential improvement in US-India relations," the report noted. According to the outlook, ongoing geopolitical challenges have contributed to volatility in Indian equity markets. However, signs of economic stabilisation, coupled with structural reforms, are expected to underpin growth. Invesco highlighted that India's macroeconomic framework, relatively strong balance sheets and improving policy environment position the country well compared to other major economies. The report highlighted the importance of domestic economic reforms in raising India's long-term trend growth and strengthening resilience against external shocks. Measures aimed at improving infrastructure, manufacturing competitiveness and financial sector efficiency were identified as key drivers for sustaining growth momentum over the medium to long term. However, Invesco cautioned that progress on reforms is likely to be gradual due to political constraints. Monetary policy is expected to play a supportive role in 2026. The firm anticipates that RBI rate cuts, made possible by easing inflationary pressures and a more benign global monetary environment, will help boost consumption and investment. Lower borrowing costs are likely to provide relief to businesses and households, supporting overall economic activity. "We expect India to remain the world's fastest-growing large economy, with growth modestly accelerating on Reserve Bank of India rate cuts. Domestic economic reforms remain crucial for raising trend growth and for long-term resilience, in our view. We expect gradual progress given political constraints," said the report Invesco also pointed to the potential for improved US-India relations as a positive factor for India's outlook. Strengthening strategic and economic ties between the two countries could enhance trade, investment flows and technology cooperation, partially offsetting risks arising from broader global trade realignments. While India's growth prospects remain favourable, the outlook acknowledged that equity market performance may lag other emerging markets in the near term. Valuations, earnings expectations and global risk appetite will continue to influence capital flows. Nonetheless, India's structural growth story, supported by demographics, urbanisation and policy reform, remains intact, the report said. Globally, Invesco expects economic growth to reaccelerate modestly in 2026 as policy support kicks in across major economies. Within this environment, India stands out for its growth potential, even as it navigates geopolitical uncertainty and domestic political realities. Invesco noted that maintaining reform momentum will be critical for India to sustain high growth rates and enhance long-term economic resilience. While challenges persist, the firm said it remains cautiously optimistic on India's trajectory in 2026, viewing the country as a key driver of emerging market growth in the years ahead. (ANI)
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