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Even as a tenous peace has been brokered between US and Iran, experts feel the real proof will be seen by action on the ground. Executive Director at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies (FDD) and former US Treasury counterterrorism analyst, Jonathan Schanzer said that the Iranian regime that operates on the ideology ushered in 1979, cannot be trusted.
Schanzer, in a conversation with ANI, was asked if it was safe for Iran to be left in this battered and bruised condition. "Look, this regime cannot be trusted in any shape or form. It's better that the old Supreme Leader is not there. It's better that his son, who is reportedly more radical and currently in a coma or ill health, is unable to lead. It's better that top military and IRGC leaders have been taken off the board. This makes the regime weaker, but the problem is that it is still the regime. The revolutionary ideology from 1979 is still the guiding force behind every decision they make," he said. Schanzer said that there can be concerns that an angry Iran may seek retribution. "For that reason, there is ample room to be concerned that a weakened and angry Iran may seek retribution. They are not fearful of losing more people in a fight against the West that they believe they are destined to win. Yes, this could be a wounded animal that is quite dangerous," he said. He also said that in the near future, there might be a revolution from within. "The other way of looking at it is that they don't have the missiles, the nukes, or the money to reconstitute themselves quickly. In that sense, maybe we buy a reprieve of four to ten years where the regime is unable to carry out attacks. During that time, we might see some kind of evolution from within. I would prefer to see regime change, and covert activity could yet bring that about. But for now, it appears Donald Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu are willing to leave the regime in place, provided they agree not to engage in future hostilities. That's a big "if" considering the core nature of this regime," he said. When Schanzer was asked about US President Donald Trump's comments on "ending the civilization", he quoted a journalist and said that one needs to take Trump seriously, but not literally. "Donald Trump's words do not always match his deeds. There was a journalist who famously quipped during Trump's first term that you need to take him seriously, but not literally. When he starts issuing these tweets, I never took it seriously that he was going to do something so horrific. But I do think the regime needed to have a little bit of doubt that the President might be willing to go all the way," he said. It was quintessential Donald Trump who can go from threatening to annihilate a civilization to making a deal with a government within 15 hours. "That scared a lot of people around the world, but more importantly, it scared the Islamic Republic and probably pushed them to make a decision they were not otherwise willing to make. Whether they follow through is another story, but one gets the sense that this was part of Trump's strategy. In every deal, he likes to have maximum flexibility and the ability to pivot from one tactic to another. You can go from threatening to annihilate a civilization to making a deal with a government within 15 hours. This is quintessential Donald Trump," he said. Trump has suspended the "bombing and attack" campaign on Iran, announcing a two-week double-sided ceasefire and saying that the 10-point proposal from Iran was workable. Iran has put forward a comprehensive 10-point framework that it says forms the basis of a complete resolution. According to the statement, the United States is expected to commit to several key principles, including "Non-aggression" and the "Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz," a crucial global oil transit chokepoint. (ANI)
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