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Taiwan's internet connectivity could be severely hit if China decides to block or delay undersea cable repair missions in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict, Taipei News reported, citing a detailed assessment by US-based intelligence firm Recorded Future.
The report, published by Recorded Future's research arm Insikt Group, has warned that more than 90 per cent of Taiwan's internet traffic flows through submarine cables. In the event of a military escalation or crisis, Chinese authorities, especially the China Coast Guard, could prevent repair vessels from accessing damaged links, the report said, citing recent incidents in the South China Sea. According to Taipei News, Insikt's findings are based on China's repeated interference with resupply missions by the Philippines in the disputed South China Sea, particularly near Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Shoal, and Sabina Shoal. The report suggests that Beijing may replicate similar strategies to target Taiwan's digital infrastructure without directly engaging in combat. The concern is not new. Earlier this year, on January 15, a fibre-optic cable connecting Taiwan to the outlying Matsu Islands, Taiwan-Matsu No. 3, was damaged. The Ministry of Digital Affairs in Taipei attributed the disruption to "natural deterioration," but suspicions of Chinese involvement had surfaced at the time, according to Taipei News. Chunghwa Telecom completed the repair work in March. Taipei News further quoted the report as saying that these types of incidents, although subtle, form part of what experts describe as "grey zone" tactics, provocative actions designed to intimidate or weaken an opponent without crossing into open war. Between 2024 and 2025, five incidents involving submarine cable damage were reported around Taiwan, and four similar cases occurred in the Baltic Sea, according to the report. Out of these, five were caused by ships dragging anchors, four of which were linked to China or Russia, either directly or through opaque ownership. Recorded Future highlighted that China's growing role in owning and operating submarine cable infrastructure globally adds another layer of risk. With the help of state-backed companies and its "Digital Silk Road" initiative, China now has influence over cable deployment, management, and data access, raising concerns among democracies worldwide, as per Taipei News. The Taipei News report quoted the researchers, "Geopolitical tensions, namely, Russia's war in Ukraine and China's assertive actions towards Taiwan, are likely behind the rise in cable sabotage incidents." The report also said that China's preparations for a possible military move on Taiwan could involve deliberate damage to submarine cables to disrupt connectivity, trade, and communications. (ANI)
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