China cautiously prepares for Trump's second presidency

Yue Jie, a Senior Research Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Programme of Chatham House, stated, "The views from the Chinese strategic community range from tragically fatalistic to extremely optimistic as they prepare for Trump 2.0. At one extreme, some commentators expect bilateral relations to head for a freefall. At the other, pundits argue that Trump the dealmaker could do deals with China on sensitive issues, including Taiwan. Neither outcome is likely."

Ryan Hass, Director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, observed that Beijing seems more prepared this time. "Xi held a call with Trump that sounded constructive. Vice President Han Zheng attended Trump's inauguration, a first. China's spokesperson expressed interest...in strengthening cooperation and pursuing a new start to relationship."

Hass further commented, "In 2017, Beijing was unprepared to deal with President Trump. In 2025, China's leaders appear more organised. Will their plan work? Time will tell."

China is preparing for potentially volatile relations while strengthening ties with other global powers. "As a hedge, Beijing intends to fortify its international position via outreach to third parties. China is attempting to lower tensions with Japan, the EU, and others. And Xi and Putin met virtually to reaffirm their commitment to PRC-Russia relations. The timing of the Xi-Putin virtual meeting to coincide with Trump's inauguration carried symbolism. Both leaders seemed to want to signal a united front and an unwillingness to be split from each other by the US," Hass explained.

Yue agreed with Hass, stating, "China's efforts to manage the former property developer will seek to maintain a precarious balance aimed at saving its faltering economy and reversing the deterioration of relations with the US-led West, while also strengthening ties with large parts of the non-Western world. This balance is critical to China's economic future and global standing."

However, China's internal challenges complicate its strategy. Recent months have seen the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) introduce measures to boost domestic consumption and support local governments, such as monetary easing and consumer subsidies. Yet, Yue noted, "Should [China] use increasingly limited financial resources to restore consumer confidence, or should it, as the CCP believes, instead promote technological progress and self-reliance?"

Trade wars remain a pressing concern. Yue remarked, "Beijing's tactics will be different from what they were in Trump's first term, as its macro-economic situation is less conducive to more strident retaliations on all fronts. Its punitive measures are likely to target sectors such as critical minerals, where Beijing enjoys a clear global monopoly."

With ongoing trade tensions with the EU, entering another trade war with the US could strain Beijing further. Hass observed, "Given domestic challenges, Xi likely will not front-run US efforts, but his own politics will demand that he not be passive either."

Chinese leaders must also manage domestic opinion. Public perception of weakness could harm Xi's image, but worsening economic conditions might provoke social unrest. Hass highlighted Xi's focus on domestic resilience, noting that he has been urging "progress on advancing self-reliance and self-strengthening" and shifting toward "new drivers of economic growth."

China sees opportunities to capitalise on Trump's transactional diplomacy. Hass noted, "Beijing will engage directly with Trump while also strengthening relations with third countries and hardening China's domestic economy. Relative to Biden, Trump's range of policy actions will be far wider. The coming period of US-PRC relations will be fluid and non-linear."

Many Global South nations, already critical of US policies, could align more closely with China. Yue observed, "Trump's return might well provide an unexpected opportunity for China to reassess all possibilities," including the Ukraine conflict.

Although mistrusted due to its alignment with Russia, Beijing may seek to mediate the Ukraine war. Trump's threat to withdraw support for Ukraine could create openings for China to position itself as a mediator. Yue stated, "Beijing would presumably like the conflict to end since it has resulted in deteriorating relations with both Europe and the USA."

China's external actions mirror its internal authoritarianism. Rishat Abbas, President of the US-based Uyghur Academy, testified to a US Congressional hearing that his sister had been imprisoned for 20 years in retaliation for his activism. "My sister's imprisonment is a clear action of retaliation. Her detention exposes the CCP's aggressive policies that target Uyghurs simply for their identity and for the activism of their relatives abroad," Abbas stated.

The CCP continues to suppress dissent and rewrite history. In Hong Kong, public commemoration of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre has been erased. Libraries have removed books on the event, and annual vigils have ceased.

Social media platforms are also under strict control. Yue highlighted the censorship on Xiaohongshu, noting, "Numerous topics are therefore off limits, particularly those relating to Chinese politics or what it perceives is Western immorality."

The CCP's balancing act between domestic and international pressures is evident in its diplomatic approach. On January 24, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to "find the right way for China and the US to get along in the new era." However, Wang's Chinese-language statement included a veiled warning: "Conduct yourself well." The idiom, hao zi wei zhi, implies caution and even subservience, translating roughly to, "Know your place and do what you should do."

Despite the challenges, Beijing appears better prepared for Trump's second term. Hass summarised the situation, stating, "The fundamental question for the PRC: they say they want to be agents of world order, they say they want to be responsible, they say they want to respect the international system. But they've got a choice to make because they've aligned themselves with agents of disorder."

Yue concluded, "Beijing has no need to escalate a war of words in response to every post on Trump's social media accounts. Its interests would be better served by responding to the new president and his unusual cabinet with balance and deliberation that takes into account China's own national challenges." (ANI)