Key developments in South China Sea in 2025: Rising tensions, military activities, and territorial disputes

As countries within and outside the region become involved, Radio Free Asia's latest report highlights five key developments to watch in 2025.

The Taiwan Strait has seen an intensification of military activities, with nearly 3,000 incursions into Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) between January and November 2024.

These incursions were accompanied by two major Chinese military exercises--Joint Sword A and B--aligned with significant political events in Taiwan. In his New Year address, Chinese leader Xi Jinping emphasised that the unification of Taiwan was "inevitable."

Shen Ming-Shih, a research fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defence Security Research (INDSR), stated, "China will continue to hold exercises in 2025 if senior Taiwanese officials visit the United States or top US officials visit Taiwan."

He added that these military drills, including joint fire strikes, blockades, and anti-access area denial tactics, will become less effective as Taiwan advances its defence countermeasures.

However, another INDSR research fellow, Ou Si-Fu, noted that despite the growing military tension, China is not ready for a full-scale war. "Xi is not confident with his army," Ou remarked, pointing to recent high-level firings in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). "The PLA has not fought a real war in a long time, so an imminent invasion of Taiwan is not expected," Ou concluded. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te, meanwhile, reaffirmed his government's commitment to boosting defence spending and military capabilities.

At Scarborough Shoal, located within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone but under de facto Chinese control, tensions have been mounting. In late December 2024, the PLA Southern Theatre Command conducted large-scale combat readiness drills around the shoal, involving both naval and air force units.

China's coast guard and maritime militia have maintained a strong presence in the area. On December 5, China's coast guard fired water cannons at a Philippine fisheries bureau boat delivering supplies to fishermen, claiming the boat had "dangerously approached" Beijing's territorial waters.

Former Philippine Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio criticised China's actions, saying, "You cannot draw baselines if you don't own the features." Carpio urged the Philippines to challenge China's territorial claims at an international tribunal. Despite the ongoing dispute, Chinese assertiveness suggests that 2025 could see new developments at the shoal, including possible construction projects.

The Philippines has been actively removing Chinese floating barriers around the reefs, but access for Filipino fishermen remains limited. Furthermore, Manila is reportedly contemplating a new legal case against China for its violations of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

The situation at Second Thomas Shoal has also seen heightened tension. In 2024, China and the Philippines were engaged in multiple stand-offs at the shoal, located in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. In June, Chinese coast guard personnel armed with pikes and machetes punctured Philippine boats during a resupply mission, resulting in the injury of a Filipino sailor.

Both sides later called for de-escalation. On December 12, China agreed to allow the Philippines to resupply the "illegally grounded" warship on a humanitarian basis, though the situation remains tense, especially given the proximity of the Second Thomas Shoal to China's heavily militarised Mischief Reef.

The United States has remained actively involved in the region. In November 2024, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin revealed the creation of Task Force Ayungin to safeguard Philippine operations at the shoal. Philippine military chief Gen.

Romeo Brawner Jr outlined the country's strategy, which includes maintaining a strong presence, modernising military equipment, and strengthening alliances. Despite this, China insists that the BRP Sierra Madre warship be removed from the Second Thomas Shoal, with the Philippines remaining steadfast in its commitment to defend the area.

Vietnam's island-building activities in the South China Sea have reached record levels. According to a study by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), the area created by Vietnam between November 2023 and June 2024 totalled 692 new acres, matching the combined total from 2022 and 2023.

In total, Vietnam has expanded its holdings by around 2,360 acres (955 ha), nearly half of China's 4,650 acres (1,881.7 ha). Vietnam's extensive reclamation work on the Barque Canada reef is particularly noteworthy, as the island now includes a nearly finished 3,000-meter airstrip.

AMTI noted that "it would be unsurprising" if Vietnam expands its runway network to additional reefs such as Pearson and Ladd.

Tom Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Centre for a New American Security, remarked, "New bases and runways would give Vietnam a position on the other side of China's 'Big Three' islands." These developments are expected to significantly alter the balance of power in the region, as Vietnam continues to expand its strategic capabilities.

Finally, the ongoing negotiations over the Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea remain a key issue. As Malaysia takes over the chairmanship of ASEAN, the question of a legally binding COC has resurfaced.

Negotiations between China and ASEAN countries began in 2002 with the Declaration of Conduct, but progress has been slow. Chinese Premier Li Qiang assured that China and ASEAN are striving for an early conclusion of the COC, but challenges persist.

Former Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon said, "Negotiations on the COC continue at a snail's pace."

Antonio Carpio, a former Philippine Supreme Court justice, said, "An agreement seems impossible...China will never agree to some provisions, Vietnam to some others."

This prolonged deadlock highlights the division within ASEAN and the complexity of reaching a consensus.

Isha Gharti, a public policy professor at Chiang Mai University, suggested that ASEAN could strengthen its collective bargaining power by aligning the interests of its member states and presenting a unified front, as reported by the RFA.

As Malaysia takes charge of ASEAN in 2025, it remains to be seen how the country will approach these challenges and the future of the South China Sea. (ANI)