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Global investment banks revised up their forecasts for South Korea's economic growth this year and next, as a semiconductor export boom strengthens the outlook, according to The Korea Herald.
Eight major global investment banks projected average growth of 3.5 per cent for this year at the end of September, up from 3.3 per cent a month earlier, according to figures released Wednesday by the Korea Center for International Finance, The Korea Herald reported. JPMorgan raised its estimate to 4 per cent from 3.8 per cent, the highest among the eight banks. UBS lifted its forecast to 3.5 per cent from 2.8 per cent, while Bank of America increased its projection to 3.6 per cent from 3.1 per cent. Citi raised its estimate to 3.8 per cent from 3.7 per cent. Six of the eight banks also upgraded their forecasts for 2027, pushing the average to 2.8 per cent from 2.5 per cent at the end of August. That brought their outlook closer to the Bank of Korea's projection of 2.9 per cent. The revisions extend a run of upgrades that accelerated over the summer as chip exports surged and economic growth exceeded expectations. The banks' average forecast for this year has risen for six consecutive months, climbing from 2.4 per cent in April to 3 per cent in June and 3.2 per cent in July. By July, six of the eight banks expected growth of at least 3 per cent, double the number a month earlier. Real gross domestic product expanded 1.8 per cent in the first quarter from the previous quarter and another 0.6 per cent in the second. The second-quarter gain exceeded the central bank's May projection of 0.2 per cent, strengthening the case for higher annual forecasts. Exports reached a monthly record of USD 120.94 billion in September, up 83.5 per cent from a year earlier. Semiconductor shipments topped USD 60 billion for the first time, accounting for roughly half the total, while the trade surplus hit a record USD 49.85 billion. The upgrades put the banks' average above the Bank of Korea's forecast of 3.3 per cent, raised in August. The central bank also lifted its projection for next year to 2.9 per cent from 2.1 per cent. Other international institutions have also raised their forecasts. The Asian Development Bank lifted its projection for this year to 3.2 per cent in September, up 0.6 percentage point from July. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its estimate to 3.7 per cent, up 1.1 percentage points from June, the largest upward revision among G20 economies. (ANI)
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