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A growing mismatch between global copper mining and smelting capacity, tightening mine supply and shifting inventories, have pushed copper prices to unprecedented levels, the Indian Primary Copper Producers Association (IPCPA) said.
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) touched a record USD 14,737 per tonne in September 2026, marking an increase of nearly 50 per cent over the past year. According to IPCPA, the rally has been driven by US tariff expectations, tightening mine supply and significant shifts in global copper inventories. IPCPA said, Since the beginning of the year, hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper have been shipped to the United States to capitalise on the premium between Comex and LME prices. The industry body noted that although the US Department of Commerce's report on potential copper import tariffs is overdue by nearly two months, markets continue to price in the possibility of trade restrictions, keeping copper prices elevated. The resulting movement in inventories has also tightened copper availability in global markets. Comex stocks have risen to a record 675,000 tonnes, while LME warehouse inventories have fallen to critically low levels, according to IPCPA. The association said, This has led to a concentration of copper stocks in the United States, while global mine output has been slightly lower due to operational challenges at 3-4 key mines across the globe. At the same time, China has continued to expand its smelting capacity, adding pressure to an already constrained supply of copper concentrates. Treatment and Refining Charges (TC/RCs) have consequently plunged to historically unprecedented levels of around negative USD 1,300 per tonne, compared with positive levels of about USD 300-400 per tonne earlier, IPCPA said. The association said the development is placing severe financial stress on smelters and highlighting the widening mismatch between mining capacity and global smelting and refining capacity. IPCPA said, Together, these developments underscore the structural challenges confronting the global copper market and reinforce copper's increasingly strategic role in industrial growth, electrification, and the global energy transition. The Indian Primary Copper Producers Association represents leading copper producers in India, including Hindalco Industries, Hindustan Copper Limited and Vedanta Limited. (ANI)
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