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India's southwest monsoon improved significantly in July, boosting hopes for a recovery in kharif sowing in the coming weeks. However, rainfall remains uneven across regions, affecting crop prospects in several key producing areas, according to an ICICI Bank report.
The report notes that "Monsoon activity has gained momentum in July with monsoon 7% below normal (1st to 20th July) in the month as against a deficit of 40% in June. IMD has projected a pick-up in coming days as well." This suggests weather conditions are becoming more favourable for sowing, particularly if the projected increase in rainfall materialises. However, the outlook remains mixed as regional disparities persist. East and Northeast India continue to face the sharpest rainfall shortfall, while parts of southern and north-western India are also experiencing deficient precipitation. Consequently, kharif sowing remains behind last year's pace. As the report states, "Kharif sowing (17th July 2026) is down by 6% YoY led by pulses and coarse cereals and should gain traction in the coming weeks as monsoon progresses." Water availability warrants close monitoring. Although reservoir levels remain below both last year's level and the long-term average, relatively better storage in western and northern regions is expected to cushion the impact of below-normal rainfall. The report highlights that "All India reservoirs storage is 34% of capacity, lower than both last year's level and long period average. However higher storage in Western and Northern India is likely to provide cushion and help mitigate the impact of below normal monsoon." Going forward, the pace of monsoon recovery will remain the key determinant of kharif acreage and crop prospects. While improving rainfall offers scope for sowing to accelerate, strengthening El Nino conditions and persistent regional rainfall deficits continue to pose downside risks to agricultural output. (ANI)
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