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In an anchor report titled "Fusion of satellites, connectivity, and AI", Nomura said SpaceX has emerged as the dominant force in the global satellite ecosystem and is building an integrated platform that links space infrastructure, broadband connectivity and AI computing.
According to the report, "SpaceX occupies a unique position in the global space industry in building integrated hardware and software infrastructure of the future across space, connectivity, and AI." The brokerage noted that SpaceX currently holds "an over 80% global mass to orbit market share since 2023" and has already launched more than 10,000 Starlink satellites. The company has set an ambitious target of deploying 42,000 satellites by 2030. Nomura said the company is pursuing aggressive upgrades in both launch vehicles and satellite technology. "Each full Starship launch carrying V3 satellites injects 60 Terabits per second (Tbps) of capacity into the constellation - over 20 times the capacity added by a Falcon 9 launching V2 Minis," the report noted. The report highlighted that connectivity has emerged as SpaceX's strongest commercial business. According to Nomura, citing the company's prospectus, "connectivity was the only segment (in contrast to the Space and AI segments) where the company generated positive operating profits during 2023-1Q26." Starlink's subscriber base reached around 10.3 million users as of March 2026, reflecting rapid global adoption of satellite broadband services. Nomura believes direct-to-cellular satellite services could become a major growth driver for the industry. It described satellite-to-mobile direct-to-cell (D2C) connectivity as "the holy grail of the satellite connectivity market," enabling standard mobile phones to connect directly to low-earth-orbit satellites without requiring specialised hardware or terrestrial towers. The brokerage further argued that AI has become the largest component of SpaceX's future opportunity. Following the merger of xAI into SpaceX earlier this year, the company now combines satellite infrastructure, connectivity networks and AI platforms under one umbrella. According to the report, "AI contributed the majority of SpaceX's TAM and capex." SpaceX estimates a total addressable market of USD 28.5 trillion, of which USD 26.5 trillion comes from AI opportunities, compared with USD 1.6 trillion from connectivity and USD 370 billion from space-related activities. Nomura noted that SpaceX's AI infrastructure includes its COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II data-centre clusters, which together provide approximately 1 gigawatt of compute power. The company has also signed large cloud-computing agreements with AI firms and technology companies, underlining the growing importance of AI within its business model. Summing up the company's strategy, Nomura said SpaceX "claims itself to be the only company building the integrated hardware and software infrastructure of the future across space, connectivity, and AI." The brokerage believes the fusion of these three sectors, reinforced by the visibility generated through SpaceX's IPO, could trigger a new investment cycle across the global satellite supply chain and create significant opportunities for component suppliers, connectivity providers and AI infrastructure companies. (ANI)
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