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Speculative money is reshaping the commodity map, and the next move hinges on geopolitics, rates, and supply shocks, according to a research report by Yes Securities. The brokerage noted that positioning is now sharply split across metals, energy, and agriculture with some trades looking crowded, others starting to turn.
"Speculative positioning has turned decisively bullish in aluminium, largely driven by geopolitical risk in West Asia," Yes Securities said. Energy-sensitive and supply-disruption fears have pushed funds into a "crowded long. That makes aluminium vulnerable to a sharp unwind if tensions cool. "Copper, by contrast, is seeing a partial trimming of frothy length amid rising exchange inventories. Zinc and lead positioning is comparatively less extended, reflecting weaker conviction," the report said. The brokerage said If West Asia risk fades, long liquidation could be swift. Copper may stay range-bound until inventories draw. Zinc and lead need a stronger demand signal before funds build bigger bets. Long positions in Gold and silver are coming off the boil. "Speculative positioning in precious metals is clearly rolling over from elevated levels... as a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields erode the macro case for holding non-yielding assets," the report noted. Gold positioning "remains historically high but has corrected meaningfully alongside prices, suggesting long liquidation rather than fresh shorting." Silver saw "a sharper flush given its higher beta." Platinum is "relatively light and stabilizing," while palladium "remains structurally short, indicating a contrarian setup within PGMs." The complex is shifting from a "crowded long, momentum-driven phase to a more two-way market." For gold to run again, Yes Securities says we need "either a clear decline in real yields or escalation in geopolitical risk." Without that, expect more normalization -- meaning further profit-taking on longs. "Speculative positioning in energy has turned decisively bullish and increasingly crowded, with funds building large net longs in crude and gasoline amid the Iran-driven supply shock narrative," the report said. Crude near "~$100+/bbl signals momentum-driven length rather than gradual accumulation." Gasoline longs have also jumped on refining tightness, while heating oil shows a "late but aggressive catch-up." Natural gas stands apart, still "structurally short... highlighting a divergence within the complex driven by fundamentally looser US gas markets." The report noted that oil markets are now heavily positioned for disruption, leaving them vulnerable to sharp long liquidation if supply fears ease or macro conditions weaken. If peace talks progress or demand softens, the exit could be crowded. Natural gas may stay heavy unless a cold snap or LNG outage changes the surplus story. Funds are "building fresh longs in soybeans and cotton on the back of fertilizer-related supply concerns and broader food inflation risks linked to West Asia disruptions." Sugar, cocoa, and wheat are still net short, but "the intensity of shorts--especially in wheat--is moderating," hinting at short covering. "The sharp price rebound in several agri commodities despite still-negative positioning suggests the market is in a transition phase from bearish to neutral/bullish." Agri has "asymmetric upside risk." If fertilizer costs stay high or weather turns, short covering could flip to outright longs quickly. For now, soybeans and cotton lead, while wheat bears are starting to cover, according to Yes Securities. (ANI)
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