RBI to unveil first Monetary Policy of FY27 today; Experts predict repo rate pause

Governor Sanjay Malhotra will deliver the decisions of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee at 10 this morning. The committee deliberated on interest rates, inflation outlook, and growth projections since Monday.

Speaking to ANI, experts indicated a strong consensus for a status quo on the current repo rate, with most suggesting that the central bank will prioritize stability amidst global economic volatility and shifting energy prices. The current repo rate stands at 5.25 per cent following a cut in December 2025.

Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist at Crisil, said that the apex bank primarily pursues a wait-and-watch kind of approach. "It's also going to be cautious," she says.

Deshpande noted that the policy announcements depended on inflationary pressures in the bank's forecast and the comfort of 2.6 per cent. She maintained that GDP projections remained around 7 per cent for the first two quarters. However, she expects slight modifications in credit growth for the coming years.

"Credit growth is expected to see slight modifications and will see a couple of basis points lower growth in 2027 and 2028," she said.

Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge Ratings, expects the RBI to maintain the status quo on policy rates and stance. She highlighted that a cautious strategy enables the bank to gauge emerging risks to growth and take a calibrated call on future reactions.

"The RBI would acknowledge that the uncertainties around its projections are likely to increase. The central bank may consider providing scenario-based projections for growth," Sinha said.

Sinha also pointed to the Iran-US conflict and supply-side shocks as primary drivers of inflationary pressure. She estimates that if global crude oil prices average USD 90 per barrel for the full year, India's GDP growth will moderate to 6.7 per cent.

"Elevated energy prices could have significant implications for India's macroeconomic fundamentals, affecting growth, inflation, external balances and the fiscal position," she noted.

Apoorva Javadekar, Chief Economist from Muthoot FinCorp, said that the RBI likely holds the repo rate constant to support potential slowing of GDP growth due to external headwinds. He noted that low inflation in February gave the bank room to wait.

Former State Bank of India Chairman Dinesh Kharap also maintained that the bank will keep the repo rate steady.

Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Economic Advisory Leader at PwC India, suggested that monetary policy action may not effectively address challenges from the West Asia conflict.

"With the conflict and uncertainties, we can expect a status quo in rates. There could be some announcements related to liquidity measures, but a rate action is unlikely," he said.

Banerjee highlighted that crude oil prices remain a key risk factor for inflation. He noted that if prices stay at USD 100 per barrel, it will lead to nearly a 1 per cent increase in the Consumer Price Index and a 1.5 to 2 per cent rise in the Wholesale Price Index. (ANI)