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India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to ease further and remain in the range of 0.4 per cent to 0.6 per cent in October 2025, supported by sustained declines in essential commodity prices and softening global trends, according to a report by Bank of Baroda (BoB).
The report added that the inflation outlook also appears benign, aided by the government's Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate rationalisation and easing global commodity prices. India's overall CPI inflation was 1.54 per cent in September 2025, marking an 8-year low, down from 2.07 per cent in August 2025. This decrease was primarily driven by a favorable base effect and lower food prices, with the year-on-year food inflation rate at -2.28%. This was the lowest yearly inflation rate since June 2017. According to the BoB Essential Commodities Index (BoB ECI), prices of key items continued to contract for the sixth consecutive month in October 2025, with the index declining 3.6 per cent year-on-year--the sharpest fall since its inception. The downward trend persisted into November, with the index dropping 3.8 per cent year-on-year as of November 6, 2025. The decline in BoB ECI was broad-based, led by sharp deflation in TOP vegetables--tomato, onion, and potato. Prices of onions fell 51.2 per cent year-on-year in October, the steepest fall since December 2020, while tomatoes and potatoes saw retail price declines of 39.9 per cent and 31.3 per cent, respectively. Healthy mandi arrivals have contributed significantly to this softening, the report added. Among other essential commodities, pulses, especially tur dal, witnessed notable price corrections, with a 29.4 per cent year-on-year decline--the largest since January 2018. Meanwhile, edible oil inflation also showed signs of easing, tracking a moderation in international prices. On a sequential basis, the BoB ECI dipped 0.1 per cent month-on-month in October, mirroring the overall trend. However, potato prices showed a marginal uptick over the previous month, reversing a two-month decline. BoB noted that the continued downward trajectory in essential commodity prices indicates comfortable inflationary conditions, reinforcing expectations of moderate CPI inflation in the coming months. (ANI)
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