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The Indian restaurant industry is witnessing a steady recovery and growth momentum, with December marking a notable acceleration in activity, according to a report by Macquarie Equity Research.
This resurgence is driven by a mix of rising discretionary spending, evolving demographics, and increased participation of women in the workforce. Key trends such as rising per capita incomes, smaller household sizes, and a declining dependency ratio are creating a ripe environment for growth in the restaurant space. Macquarie highlights the increasing importance of value offerings and cost control, which have helped stabilize same-store sales and improve profitability across the sector. International brands have a significant edge in India due to their broad appeal and ability to sustain operations in areas with lower rental costs, such as secondary streets. This enhances their unit economics compared to regional players, especially in high-rent zones like high streets. The report stated, "We believe these conditions and the nascent nature of consumer adoption of eating out give international brands a strong edge in the restaurant industry. This is because their broader appeal allows international brands to attract consumers even for stores which are not in high street areas." Elevated rental costs in India, especially in high street areas, and the regional nature of food services have meant that brands find it difficult to replicate success across micro-markets and across cities. Macquarie anticipates that the upcoming Union Budget may provide further impetus to the sector. A potential cut in personal income tax rates for lower- and middle-income households could lead to an increase in discretionary income, accelerating the recovery in same-store sales growth (SSSg). There are likely to be tailwinds in place for sustained, healthy growth across the industry in the near term. Additionally, the report says that it is important to gauge brands by their ability to add stores at a healthy pace while ensuring that operational performance as well as drag from new stores is not material enough to weigh on overall margins. Macquarie remains optimistic about the long-term potential of international brands in India. Their ability to expand into less-saturated areas while maintaining strong operational performance positions them well for sustained growth. Moreover, their resilience in passing on input cost pressures and retaining customer loyalty enhances their competitive advantage. (ANI)
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