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China could face military fatalities of up to 100,000 if it attempts an amphibious invasion of Taiwan and would ultimately be compelled to retreat, although it may still take control of Taiwan's offshore Kinmen and Matsu islands, according to a study by a US-based think tank, Focus Taiwan reported.
The study, titled "If China Attacks Taiwan," was released by the German Marshall Fund, which receives partial funding from the United States government. The report evaluates the likely military, strategic and international fallout for China under scenarios ranging from a "major war" to a "minor conflict" with Taiwan, Focus Taiwan said. Zack Cooper, one of the report's authors, said a full-scale conflict would begin with amphibious landings by Chinese forces, accompanied by strikes on Taiwan's military as well as US forces based in Japan and Guam. While Chinese troops could reach Taiwan's shores, their logistics would be severely disrupted by "successful Taiwanese and US strikes on ships and aircraft crossing the [Taiwan] Strait," wrote Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Focus Taiwan reported. The report said the fighting would extend over "several months of heavy fighting," leading to "massive losses" for China of as many as 100,000 troops killed. Such an outcome would force Beijing to "eventually surrender on the condition that its forces on Taiwan are repatriated to the mainland without harm." In the same scenario, Taiwan is projected to suffer roughly 50,000 military and 50,000 civilian casualties. The United States would lose an estimated 5,000 military personnel and 1,000 civilians, while Japan would face about 1,000 military and 500 civilian deaths, the report estimated. Even with a Chinese withdrawal from Taiwan's main island, the study said "Chinese forces would retain control of Kinmen and Matsu Islands," indicating that territorial losses for Taiwan could persist despite Beijing's overall defeat, Focus Taiwan said. The document was issued a week after China carried out extensive military drills around Taiwan, involving operations across nearby waters and airspace. It also modelled potential global reactions to both a "major war" and a "minor conflict" involving Taiwan. To assess Beijing's expectations of international responses, the report examined earlier episodes such as the fallout from the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989, the 2014-2015 Umbrella Movement, the 2019-2020 Anti-Extradition Law protests in Hong Kong, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Among dozens of possible international measures in a major war scenario, only four were judged to impose a "high cost" on China. These included "freezing the assets of Chinese leaders," considered highly likely, and three low-probability outcomes: "signing a NATO-like Asian alliance," "recognising Taiwan's independence," and "signing a treaty alliance with Taiwan." In contrast, the report said responses to a minor conflict would be limited. Cooper described such a scenario as involving weeks-long air and naval engagements, incursions into Taiwan's airspace and waters, and a "quarantine" of major ports. In that case, governments would likely issue travel advisories for China and release "critical public statements," actions Beijing would regard as "low cost," the report said. (ANI)
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