China plays its Trump card

With regularity, the almost buffoonish actions of Trump are lowering respect for the USA around the world. Whether it is threats to seize control of the Panama Canal or Greenland, Trump is making a mockery of the rule of law. In language reminiscent of China's leaders, the American second-term president has not ruled out the use of force to "retake" the Panama Canal.

Yet that is exactly what tsarist Vladimir Putin did in Ukraine, and what Xi is threatening to do to Taiwan. Both claim foreign territory as their own, and they deem conquest necessary to secure their national security interests. If it is okay for Trump to talk like this, then how can the world criticize Putin and Xi for similar ambitions? This is the quandary that Trump is creating for himself.

One of Trump's first tasks was to suspend US Agency for International Development (USAID) funding for 90 days, as he moves it under the Department of State and shrinks its workforce. The USA funds 40 per cent of global foreign aid, so curbing its finances will badly disrupt humanitarian aid worldwide. Although couched in the language of saving money and demanding accountability, the USA is proving an unreliable partner and is giving China a golden opportunity to step up and expand its influence.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, acting director of USAID, said, "These are taxpayer dollars, and we owe the American people assurances that every dollar we are spending abroad is being spent on something that furthers our national interest."

Whilst that may be true, knee-jerk and short-term actions may boomerang back against American national interests in ways still unforeseen.

Rubio added, "This [is] not about ending foreign aid. It's about structuring it in a way that furthers the national interest of the United States." However, others in Trump's administration have exhibited a wholly different sentiment. Elon Musk, the billionaire head of the Department of Government Efficiency, described USAID as "a criminal organization" and decreed it was time "for it to die".

Even though China's economy is struggling, Trump is handing China global influence on a silver platter. As the USA withdraws, China can renew or rethink its soft-power efforts and market itself as a responsible global power. This is already happening.

When mine-clearing operations in Cambodia were suspended after Trump pulled the plug on USAID, China stepped in with offers of assistance. Interestingly, USAID was established by President John F Kennedy in 1961, its primary aim being to counter Soviet influence in vulnerable areas of the world. In 2023, USAID gave assistance worth USD 64 billion.

Michael Schiffer, a former USAID official under the Joe Biden administration, told Associated Press: "We'll be sitting on the sidelines, and then in a couple of years we'll have a conversation about how we're shocked that the PRC has positioned itself as the partner of choice in Latin America, Africa and Asia."

China's equivalent of USAID is the China International Development Cooperation Agency (China Aid). It is nowhere as large as USAID, as China's model focuses on giving loans and developing infrastructure under Xi's much-vaunted Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, as finances have tightened since the COVID-19 pandemic, the BRI has been whittled back.

It is difficult to quantify Chinese aid, but William & Mary's Global Research Institute estimated that, from 2000-21, China provided USD 1.34 trillion in loans to developing nations, mainly through the BRI. To give an illustration of the different Chinese and American approaches, the USA might train doctors whereas China would prefer to build a hospital. China's approach is much more transactional rather than humanitarian, for Beijing seeks to reap a financial gain from its foreign assistance.

Nor is China interested in improving local governance in trouble spots around the world, something that USAID prioritizes in war-torn or insurgency-plagued areas.

Beijing is naturally not keen to advance democracy, but it would rather promote its own authoritarian style of government.

USAID even had a Countering Chinese Influence Fund, whose purpose was to "advance national security goals" and "build more resilient partners that are able to withstand pressure from the CCP and other malign actors". USAID must have been doing something well, for it has been heavily criticized by China. Last year, China's Foreign Ministry issued a report accusing USAID programs of prioritizing the advancement of US interests and of corruption.

Another microphone drop moment for the USA occurred at the Munich Security Conference, where Vice President JD Vance spoke. European leaders are nervous at Trump's erratic policies and rhetoric, but Vance's speech antagonized those fears rather than allayed them. He launched a scalding broadside against European democracies, saying their greatest threat was not China or Russia, but that which came "from within". He immediately raised the heckles of many allies, with German Defense Minister Pistorius calling Vance's accusations "unacceptable".

Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth caused his own sensation. He told the Ukraine Defense Contact Group: "We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective. Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering."

Hegseth indicated US troops would not get involved, and that Ukraine's membership in NATO as part of a negotiated settlement is unlikely. He indicated too that the USA will scale back its support for Ukraine, and that Europe will have to take up the slack. Trump has initiated direct peace negotiations with Putin, but this is controversial for he is doing so without Ukraine's approval or involvement. Indeed, following these US unilateral actions and Vance's comments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested the "decades-old relationship between Europe and America is now ending".

Zelenskyy also told meeting attendees: "We have clear intel: this summer, Russia plans to send troops to Belarus under the pretext of training exercises. That's exactly how they staged forces before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Is this Russian force meant to attack Ukraine? Maybe. Or maybe it's meant for you," he warned European nations.

Moscow will welcome such conditions being proposed by Trump's peace plan, whereas they are disastrous for Ukraine as it will lose 20 per cent of its territory and be forced to accept an unequal peace while Putin rebuilds his military. The current US position hearkens back to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's efforts to ensure peace in the lead-up to World War II. Securing the Munich Agreement with Hitler in 1938, he gave away the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia. History proved that Chamberlain made a grave error of judgement.

Trump may be doing much the same. He is throwing Ukraine under the bus in the forlorn hope that Putin will be satisfied with what he has achieved and that there will once again be peace in Europe. However, appeasement of Putin will make the world a more dangerous - not a safer - place. The USA is abandoning its key role in NATO, and both China and Russia will be wildly applauding.

Malcolm Davis, a Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, commented, "I know I shouldn't be, but I'm absolutely staggered by the willful destruction to Western security interests done this week. This will not just see Ukraine under threat from further Russian aggression, and a dramatic increase in the risk of an attack by Russia on NATO in coming years, but it sends a horrendous signal of weakness to Beijing. China will read this as a lack of US resolve to respond to any invasion or blockade of Taiwan. We're facing the now real prospect of a new world war within this decade as a result of events this week."

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke at the same conference as Vance, and he came across as more conciliatory. He said China could play a "constructive role" in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Although posing as a responsible global player, China is not a neutral party or peacemaker, for it has always sided with Russia and never once condemned Putin's bloody actions.

China will have many chances to become a champion in numerous areas of the world. It already has significant influence in regions like Africa and Asia, and that can only continue as the USA withdraws into its shell. However, China's friendship with Russia remains a stumbling block for closer ties for most of Europe. Even in the South Pacific, Beijing is making further inroads. Prime Minister Mark Brown of the Cook Islands recently traveled to Harbin to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership deal. This surprised and angered New Zealand, which provides budget support and is responsible for defending the Cook Islands.

According to the Australian-based Lowy Institute think-tank, China already has the backing of numerous nations who officially endorse Beijing's position of full sovereignty over Taiwan, and that it is entitled to pursue all efforts to achieve unification. China has conducted a concerted campaign over the past 18 months, particularly among the so-called Global South, to gain backing for its position.

A Lowy Institute report calculated that, as of late 2024, 119 countries had endorsed China's claim to sovereignty over Taiwan. Of these, 89 also backed China's unification efforts. This is just another effort in China's growing campaign to isolate Taiwan and gain wider global support for its nefarious purposes. Fearful of Western sanctions in case of open conflict against Taiwan, China can claim "legitimacy" from so many supporters around the world. This would strengthen China's case at the United Nations, or at least dilute Western efforts to censure Beijing.

Of the 70 most pro-China countries, 97 per cent of them are from the Global South, the Lowy report outlined. They include the likes of Egypt, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, South Africa and Sri Lanka. A major coup for China occurred in September 2024 when 53 African governments jointly signed a statement in Beijing agreeing that Taiwan was Chinese territory and said that Africa "firmly supports all" China's unification efforts. This was a serious step forward from the 2021 summit where participants said "resolving territorial and maritime disputes peacefully" was the aim.

In March 2022, some 141 out of 193 UN members backed a General Assembly resolution demanding Russia withdraw from Ukraine. With China already engendering such support worldwide for its stance on Taiwan, it appears UN censures against China would be far narrower than what Russia experienced. China, exaggeratedly claims "universal consensus" for its position, although this is a lie.

It is worrying what China is doing against Taiwan, and Beijing may start feeling more confident about getting away with an invasion without drawing US intervention. Admiral Sam Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), recently told the Honolulu Defense Forum that China is "on a dangerous course" and its continuous drills amount to "rehearsals for the forced unification of Taiwan to the mainland". Paparo added that the Chinese military's "increasingly complex multi-domain operations demonstrate clear intent and improving capability".

The INDOPACOM chief also warned of a "triangle of troublemakers" - China, North Korea and Russia - as they coordinate all sorts of military technologies and missions. One example is apparent cooperation by Chinese and Russian merchant ships to damage or disrupt undersea fiber-optic cables. Trump now has the opportunity to become a second Chamberlain, or to pull the world back from the brink of a major conflagration. Yet, as he bullishly crashes about and treads on the toes of allies and acquaintances alike, China does not really have to do anything but just sit and watch. By patiently playing its Trump card, China just has to be ready to step in and pick up the pieces. (ANI)