China stuns with barrage of next-gen military aircraft

The impact of China's achievements should not be diminished, for the sudden appearance of two distinct sixth-generation fighters is dramatic and breathtaking.

The West is planning such fighters - like the USA's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) project over which the authorities are humming and hawing - but they are on drawing boards at best. China, on the other hand, has already built prototypes and successfully flown them.

The first aircraft to appear in the public domain on 26 December was an enigmatic fighter from Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAC), immediately followed by a separate design from Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC). Later that day, images appeared on the Chinese internet of a brand new airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft based on the Y-20 transport from Xian Aircraft Corporation (XAC). Thus, three of China's largest aircraft producers enjoyed their moment under the sun.

It is unlikely all three secretive aircraft had maiden flights that very day, so widespread circulation of videos and still images on Boxing Day constitutes a carefully orchestrated campaign by the Chinese government. Netizens face severe penalties for publishing images of top-secret military technology, and ANI recently spoke to one Chinese aircraft aficionado who was imprisoned for six months for photographing and posting aircraft images.

Significantly, 26 December is Mao Zedong's birth date. Also, the aircraft trio's revelation came shortly after the Pentagon released its annual report on the status of China's military on 18 December. Beijing reacted angrily, saying the document "misinterpreted

China's defense policies, speculated about China's military capacity development, flagrantly interfered in China's domestic affairs, desperately slandered the Chinese military and exaggerated the so-called military threat posed by China."

Within less than a week, it seemed China wished to make parts of the report obsolete! That US report mentioned the J-35 but was silent on future-generation fighters and a Y-20-based AEW platform. However, this is not to say the US military establishment was taken by surprise. It was not.

In September 2022, General Mark D. Kelly, then head of the US Air Force's Air Combat Command, acknowledged China was developing sixth-generation fighters and a system of systems involving unmanned aircraft. Kelly said China saw such aircraft "greatly the way we see it: an exponential reduction in signature, exponential acceleration of processing power and sensing." Kelly also warned the Chinese "are not dummies. They know what they're doing."

We may examine each of the three aircraft in turn. Chengdu's manned fighter was accompanied by a twin-seat J-20S acting as a chase plane. Given that China has not officially commented on its new platforms, some are calling this the J-36 in reference to its serial number '36011'. Stealth shaping resembles that of the J-20, and the angle of its wings suggests a maximum speed of Mach 1.8.

One novel aspect is the aircraft's lack of a vertical tail. Without a vertical stabilizer, the blended double-delta design relies on five trailing-edge control surfaces per wing to assist with maneuverability. The advantage of removing the tail is a reduction in the radar signature, since this vertical surface is a major reflector. It also offers aerodynamic efficiencies, particularly at high speeds and when cruising. Indications of a new tailless design from Chengdu were spotted in satellite imagery several years ago.

Also notable is that it is powered by three jet engines. What is the justification for this, including the third inlet design being completely different? The most obvious reason is that no current Chinese-produced engine produces enough thrust for a twin-engine design or to achieve super-cruise (sustained supersonic speeds). It is possible the central engine is used for take-off, climb and super-cruise, while the two other engines provide differential thrust and vectoring, but this is speculation. Standard caret inlets for two jets are under the wings, while the third intake is a dorsal one atop the fuselage.

It is unknown what engines power the new aircraft, but if the middle engine is different to the others, this would create a logistical nightmare. Exhaust nozzles for all three jets are positioned side by side at the rear of the fighter in the best position to reduce its heat signature.

Also of interest is the J-36's sheer size - it dwarfed the J-20, itself a large fighter. This suggests it is designed for long endurance and range, with large fuel and weapon payloads. It is also currently unclear whether it has a single-seat or twin-seat configuration.

The jury is still out on whether this is a prototype sixth-generation fighter, or a demonstrator acting as a testbed for new technologies that will appear in future designs.

China has been testing different fighter configurations for some time, including subscale demonstrators.

If it indicates the shape of China's next-generation fighter, how would it be used? China's ultimate aim is regional dominance, to conquer Taiwan and hold the USA at arm's reach. Such an enormous airframe can accommodate copious amounts of fuel and weapons. Its weight - perhaps around 120,000lbs - is indicated by two tandem-wheel landing gear units.

Flying at high altitudes over long distances, countering enemy aircraft seems destined to be its main mission. However, its large weapons bay could accommodate missiles able to target things like aircraft carriers and airbases, or even unloose swarms of loitering munitions. With the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) deficient in aerial refueling aircraft (although it is addressing this with ongoing production of the YY-20 tanker), such aircraft can operate more independently, and also surely act as a control node for unmanned aircraft. Such characteristics would mean China can extend its fighter fleet's operational envelope, forcing American and allied assets such as air-to-air refuellers and AEW aircraft to operate farther away.

Rick Joe, an expert on the PLA, has referred to this aircraft as the J-XD in the past. He commented, "This CAC aircraft is spoken of as air-to-air-oriented (though, as with all modern tactical aircraft, a degree of multirole capability is expected). I observe many have made arguments that this may be a fighter-bomber/striker, or an outright bomber. The rationale is fair - the J-36 is large. It's a Dorito flying wing, without overt control surfaces poking out."

Indeed, he admitted it does not look like a traditional air superiority aircraft. However, Joe continued, "All this depends on how one views the 'air superiority' mission of the future. It's no secret that everyone, including the US Air Force, is pursuing a system-of-systems approach involving progressively more capable and distributed unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV)/collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) and other platforms. The PLA is too." Such advances may lower the relative value of traditional maneuverability, as future aircraft focus on signature reduction, sensing, networking, commanding CCAs, weapons, power generation, processing and range/endurance.

Joe noted, "At this stage, estimates of the J-36's size put it maybe a bit longer than the J-20 at 21-23m, with a wingspan of 20m or so. For a blended delta flying wing with a rather thick fuselage, that's a big plane. Even with three engines, that's plentiful internal volume and mass."

For the air-to-air role, it could carry PL-17 very long-range air-to-air missiles, or greater quantities of traditionally sized missiles. For the strike role, it could internally carry stand-off weapons or even a rotary launcher.

Joe pondered whether differences between modern long-range air superiority fighters and modern theater strike aircraft are perhaps not that great. He said the modern trend is towards larger, low-observability combat aircraft worldwide.

Joe assessed, "I propose the near future of air superiority manned combat aircraft are large, stealthy, command and processing platforms to direct friendly UCAVs and other manned fighters, with its own capable weapons and sensors to engage, and enough kinematics to engage on its own terms. As UCAVs/CCAs become more autonomous and onboard processing advances, the benefits of a manned air superiority combat aircraft are likely to grow too - the rate-limiting factor will be human attention in the cockpit."

He even suggested that "fighter aircraft" may one day become an anachronistic term. Instead, "combat aircraft" may act as linchpins of aerial warfare system-of-systems, commanding unmanned aircraft in a stealthy and persistent way, yet still possessing their own organic lethality.

In summary, it remains to be seen whether this J-36 prototype is more than a technology demonstrator, and actually presages the PLAAF's future sixth-generation fighter. Further complicating any analysis, China is known to be developing a new regional fighter-bomber. This project is known as the JH-XX, and some think the J-36 may be the direct fruit of this effort.

Nonetheless, its mysterious appearance and characteristics do indicate the direction China is going with future combat aircraft. Indeed, if the development history of the J-20 is anything to go by, a pre-production J-36 aircraft could appear as early as 2029, with full production coming several years after that.

Like CAC, the Shenyang-based aerospace company is also developing a fighter that possesses advances in range, sustained cruise speed, payload and low observability. With images circulating on social media several hours after those of the J-36 magically materialized, this aircraft was smaller than Chengdu's one.

In fact, it may even be an unmanned design, since the cockpit area has not been clearly seen in photos yet. Fewer photos or videos of the SAC aircraft are available compared to the J-36, so it is more difficult to make assessments about this design. Obviously, though, it is a twin-engine design and, again, it has no vertical tail. Nor is Shenyang competing against Chengdu for a future production contract. Having two parallel designs competing against each other would be a waste of finite resources. If it is not an unmanned aircraft, then perhaps it represents a lighter fighter than CAC's design, giving the PLAAF a potential medium-heavy fighter combination in the future.

Just as SAC came out with the FC-31 fighter first, before it evolved into the quite different J-35/J-35A, this full-size prototype may not yet be a pre-production aircraft.

Joe said that, while comparing the CAC and SAC fighters with the American NGAD as sixth-generation designs is a valid comparison, "The true measure of this comparison, in my opinion, depends on how representative the NGAD demonstrator(s) are of the final NGAD article procured by the USAF." Of course, the same also applies to the PLA aircraft - what the PLAAF finally fields may vary markedly from the two new designs recently seen.

The third aircraft to enjoy the spotlight on 26 December is tentatively referred to as the KJ-3000, although its maiden flight may actually have occurred in November. Built by XAC, this airborne early warning aircraft is based on the Y-20B transporter powered by four WS20 engines.

Such an AEW variant of the Y-20 was always expected, and it features a large radome with active electronically scanned array radars mounted atop the fuselage. It is unclear if the radome rotates. An AEW aircraft's long-range radar detects enemy aircraft and provides situational awareness, plus the KJ-3000 presumably has electronic warfare and electronic intelligence capabilities. This is indicated by a large bulge on the bottom of the tail, but the resolution of photos does not make clear whether further fairings are on the fuselage sides.

Such aircraft are needed to replace older systems like the KJ-2000, and it will be more capable than turboprop KJ-200 and KJ-500 systems based on smaller airframes. The KJ-3000 may well become the PLAAF's most widespread AEW aircraft, of which it has a fleet of around 60 at the moment.

China made a deliberate statement by "unveiling" this trio of new aircraft on a single day. The fighter types, especially, raise numerous questions as to their ultimate development status and purpose within the PLA hierarchy. Nonetheless, China has made its point that the rest of the world must sit up and take note of its military prowess. (ANI)