US sheds light on alarming modernisation of PLA

In short, China's investment in its armed forces constitutes the single largest military build-up since the end of World War II. The question is, why?

Consider this, China now has more than 600 operational nuclear warheads. Its approximately 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) can reach the US mainland.

The PLA has the world's leading arsenal of hypersonic missiles. The PLA has 400 marines stationed in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. China possesses the world's largest military force, comprising 2.035 million active, 510,000 reserve, and 500,000 paramilitary troops.

Such facts make grim reading. Again, the question needs to be asked why China is prioritising its military growth even while its economy stumbles? All these details, and many more, were revealed in a new report issued by the US Department of Defence (DoD) on 18 December.

The report, entitled "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2024," is submitted annually to the US Congress, and this was the 24th edition. The report covers developments only through to the beginning of 2024, so it does not mention such activities as China's test flight of an ICBM across the South Pacific, which splashed down near New Caledonia.

The DoD summarised: "In 2023 the PRC continued its efforts to form the PLA into an increasingly capable instrument of national power. Throughout the year, the PLA adopted more coercive actions in the Indo-Pacific region while accelerating its development of capabilities and concepts to strengthen the PRC's ability to 'fight and win wars' against a 'strong enemy,' counter an intervention by a third party in a conflict along the PRC's periphery, and project power globally."

Of course, this is Chinese-speak for enhancing the PLA's ability to fight and defeat the US, the world's preeminent military power, and to dissuade or prevent an American intervention in Chinese operations against Taiwan. This is the ultimate reason why Chairman Xi Jinping continues to pour resources into the PLA.

The Pentagon estimates that China's actual defence budget is USD 330-450 billion, which is considerably more than China admits to officially--USD 231 billion for 2024. Additional funds come from the fact that China is the world's fourth-largest arms supplier too.

Missiles are one of the PLA's strengths, and nuclear weapons are managed by the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF). Last year's report tabulated 500 operational nuclear warheads, but that had increased to 600+ within a year. By 2030, the PLARF will have a predicted 1,000 nuclear warheads, with more to come after that. China is in the vanguard of technological advancements, with strategic hypersonic glide vehicles under development, plus a fractional orbital bombardment system was demonstrated in 2021.

The report confirmed three new missile silo fields deep inside China that contain 320 silos for ICBMs, plus China is likely doubling DF-5 liquid-propellant ICBM numbers to 50 silos. The DoD expects the DF-41 ICBM (containing up to three warheads each) to be deployed in silos and on railways, in addition to known road-mobile launchers. China also test-launched two DF-31AG ICBMs from training silos last year. China is nowadays keeping some nuclear forces on heightened alert for an early-warning counterstrike posture, what Washington calls "launch on warning."

Significantly, Russia is supporting China's rapid nuclear-arsenal expansion by providing highly enriched uranium nuclear fuel assemblies to China's two CFR-600 fast breeder reactors, one of which has already been commissioned. In fact, China has received from Moscow an amount of highly enriched uranium that exceeds the entire amount removed worldwide under US and International Atomic Energy Agency auspices in the last three decades. And China still accuses the USA of a Cold War mentality?

All this demonstrates how Xi is strengthening military options on the escalatory ladder; indeed, deterring the USA is the ultimate goal. The report noted, "The expanding nuclear force will enable it to target more US cities, military facilities, and leadership sites than ever before in a potential nuclear conflict."

This can be the only explanation for Xi's dramatic buildup of nuclear weapons. The PLARF has now deployed its 5,000-8,000 km-range DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which presumably has a hypersonic glide vehicle payload option as well as conventional land-attack, anti-ship, and nuclear capabilities. The DF-27's potential targets include Guam, Alaska, and Hawaii.

The Pentagon believes the PLARF has 1,300 medium-range ballistic missiles. With a range of at least 1,000 km, these missiles only make sense for hitting targets in neighbouring Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and India, for instance.

Turning to the PLA Navy (PLAN), it currently has more than 370 ships and submarines, including 140+ major surface combatants. The report anticipates the PLAN will have 395 major vessels by 2025 (including 65 submarines) and 435 vessels by 2030 (with 80 submarines), as its growth continues without letup. China now has five types of anti-ship ballistic missiles: the DF-21D, DF-26, DF-17, DF-27, and YJ-21, all designed to keep enemy ships and aircraft carriers at arm's length while it prosecutes operations against Taiwan.

Three of four new Type 093B nuclear-powered attack submarines may be operational by next year, probably armed with land-attack cruise missiles. Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) are conducting near-continuous at-sea deterrence patrols armed with JL-3 missiles that can reach the continental USA from locations such as the South China Sea or Bohai Gulf. The PLAN has six Type 094s, but the DoD thinks more will appear.

As for the introduction of the next-generation Type 096 SSBN, "The Type 096 will likely begin construction soon" and enter service in the late 2020s or early 2030s, reflecting Xi's desire to accelerate China's sea-based nuclear capability.

As for the PLA Air Force (PLAAF), the service is estimated to now have 51 Y-20A heavy-lift transport aircraft, as well as 16 Y-20U tankers. Such platforms are extending the global reach of the PLA. The H-20 stealth bomber, able to strike regional and global targets, is mentioned, but "it may take more than a decade to develop this type of advanced bomber" after the program was announced in 2016.

Notably, the PLAN transferred many shore-based units (e.g., radar, air defence), 300 fighters (including all JH-7 fighter-bombers), and all H-6J maritime strike bombers to the PLAAF. This was ostensibly to allow the PLAN to focus on carrier-borne aviation and for the PLAAF to improve command and control and air defence.

Xi has been in charge of the PLA for twelve years, yet he has not rooted out corruption in the military. Indeed, corruption merited a special section in this year's report. It highlighted that no fewer than 15 high-ranking military officers and defence industry executives were removed from July to December 2023 alone.

It pointed out many removals were due to fraud in weapons acquisitions, particularly concerning underground silos. Many of these cases are tied to Li Shangfu, who signed off on all PLA weapon acquisitions when he was head of the Equipment Development Department from 2017-22. The PLARF has presumably repaired these silos, thus increasing overall operational readiness. Because of the report's cutoff date, reverberations from the fall of Admiral Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission, are not discussed.

It predicted that removals of key personnel "may have disrupted" PLA progress toward their 2027 military modernisation goal. There is some confusion over the 2027 date that Xi refers to as the "centennial military building goal."

By that time, Xi wants the PLA to possess a complete toolbox of military options available for use against Taiwan. However, this should not be construed as a planned date for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. US officials say an invasion is "neither imminent nor inevitable" in 2027.

These ongoing corruption issues should perhaps be best regarded as a speedbump on the PLA's pathway to greater capability, rather than being a game-ending disability. Yes, dirty laundry is being aired, but Xi obviously feels confident overall in the direction he is taking the PLA. Xi is pursuing a world-class military, even while, closer to home, the PLA seeks to dominate and control Taiwan and everything within the so-called First Island Chain.

Corruption remains rampant because it is sewn into the very fabric of society and military culture, but the dramatic growth in PLA capability continues unchecked. The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) determination and unparalleled ability to marshal resources mean that the PLA's modernisation continues unabated. This is the background against which corruption must be viewed. Xi is unremitting in his desire to purify and tone the PLA into a force that can take on not only Taiwan but also the USA if necessary.

The report highlighted that "in the last decade, the PRC has employed a more coercive approach to deal with disputes over maritime features, rights to potentially rich offshore oil and gas deposits, and border areas".

For example, in the South China Sea, "The PLA has used lasing, aerobatics, acoustic devices, the discharge of objects and other activities that impinged on the ability of nearby aircraft and vessels to manoeuvre safely where high seas freedoms apply."

China is not playing by international rules, and it is throwing its weight around. Perhaps the vehemence of the Chinese government's response to the Pentagon report is the greatest testament to its value and accuracy. On 21 December, China's Ministry of National Defense slammed the document's release, saying it "strongly deplores and firmly opposes" this content from a "war-addicted" US.

Spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang said the report "misinterpreted China's defense policies, speculated about China's military capacity development, flagrantly interfered in China's domestic affairs, desperately slandered the Chinese military and exaggerated the so-called military threat posed by China".

Zhang added, "For over 20 years, the US has been publishing such deceptive and hypocritical reports year after year, only seeking excuses for the development of its own military capacity and misleading public opinion." He insisted that China "adheres to the path of peaceful development and a national defence policy that is defensive in nature".

Rather than refute any inaccuracies in the report, China simply trotted out its usual epithets and accusations. Dr. Andrew Erickson, Professor of Strategy at the US Naval War College, noted, "PRC officials fulminate about the China Military Power Report but don't refute its facts because they can't. Instead, they repeat the same old polemic condemnations from previous years. They know it's true overall; they're just upset that it exists in the first place." He described Chinese criticisms as the "same old sound and fury".

Erickson pointed out in a piece published by The War Zone website: "Despite all the drama and 'palace intrigue,' we must never lose sight of an important paradox: China has the world's largest bureaucracy to propagandise its greatest strengths while hiding (or at least dismissing) its greatest weaknesses. America, by contrast, ultimately bares all for all to see. It is an elementary analytical error to confuse the respective great powers' 'dirty laundry' with their 'designer clothes'."

Graft has always been endemic in the PLA. Corruption is an enduring mark of communist systems, especially where the CCP is above the law that applies to everyone else. Power struggles, graft, pay-to-play, and influence peddling will always feature in China's military.

Yet none of this has slowed down Xi's pursuit of modernisation and his drive to sharpen the PLA. Evidence of Xi's unrivalled authority was his dissolution of the Strategic Support Force on 19 April 2024, one that he himself formed in 2015!

The Pentagon notes this restructuring was required to give China's military the best possible network and communication systems management to enable the successful prosecution of high-end warfare against the most capable opponents. Xi is a man on a mission, and he is dragging the PLA along with him. (ANI)