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For an aggressive Beijing planning to integrate Taiwan with the Chinese mainland by force, Moscow's experience with the invasion of Ukraine has come as a warning shot.
The cost of a Chinese misadventure in Taiwan may be prohibitive for Beijing, said Valerio Fabbri, writing in Geopolitica.info. The sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union on Russia for the misadventure in Ukraine are a message that world opinion is ready to galvanize in isolating China should it try to overrun the island of Taiwan. The stalled Russian offensive reveals to China that the cost of attempting an invasion of Taiwan is likely to be prohibitively high, even without a direct military conflict with the United States. US President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have repeatedly said that China is now the main threat to peaceful world order. Unlike in the case of Ukraine, the Taiwan Relations Act of the United States mandates that "in any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts of embargoes, force or any other coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social and economic system of the people of Taiwan, the United States shall provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character." Moreover, the US has encouraged Taiwan to acquire more mobile weapons for its military that would better enable it to carry out asymmetric warfare, should Beijing launch an all-out assault on Taiwan, said Fabbri. Besides, while Russian troops only had to cross a land border to enter Ukraine, China would have to launch a full-scale amphibious invasion of the island of Taiwan, a much more difficult operation. Above all, the swipe and speed of the financial and economic sanctions against Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine are likely to unnerve leaders in China, reported Geopolitica.info. The cost of attempting to invade Taiwan could be intolerably high, even without a direct military confrontation with the United States. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has already made it clear that the Joe Biden administration is aiming to lead the international bloc opposed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine into a broader coalition to counter a "more serious, long-term threat to global order from China." This would mean not only economic sanctions against Beijing but also helping Taipei with arms and ammunition. Besides the USA, most of the European countries, Australia, Canada, Japan and South Korea are helping Ukraine with liberal military assistance. China is more integrated into the world economy and the international community than Russia; Beijing has reasons to be warier of international sanctions than Moscow. It will be difficult for China to insulate its economy from external influences. The disruptions in the Chinese economy caused by COVID - 19, the looming real estate crisis, marked by the rise in debt levels of real estate developers and the slump in the real estate market, and an aging population will stand in the way of China sustaining its economic growth on the strength of buoyant domestic demand, said Fabbri. Also, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on June 11 reaffirmed America's support for Taiwan. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the premier defense summit in Asia, he said Chinese military activity around the self-governing island of Taiwan threatened to change the status quo, noting the steady increase in provocative and destabilizing military activities near Taiwan, including the almost daily military flights near the island. "Our policy hasn't changed," he warned. "Washington allows informal relations and defense ties with Taipei. We remain focused on maintaining peace, stability and the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. But the PRC's moves threaten to undermine security, stability and prosperity in the Indo - Pacific." (ANI)
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