Pakistan's TTP problem rises following Taliban's takeover in Afghanistan: Report

In 2021, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency escalated its tirade against Pakistan. Operating from bases in Afghanistan and with a growing presence inside Pakistan, the group mounted an increasing number of attacks against Pakistani security forces -- as well as against some critical Chinese interests in Pakistan as noted by the United States Institute of Peace.

Therefore, Pakistani officials often implied, the US exit from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban would limit the TTP's threat against Pakistan.

On the contrary, the TTP seems to have been energized with the Taliban's takeover and looks stronger than before. The depth of the TTP-Afghan Taliban relationship became evident after the Taliban's August takeover, according to the United States Institute of Peace.

Almost immediately, Taliban leadership released senior TTP leaders and a large number of fighters imprisoned by the former Afghan government. The Taliban regime also appears to have provided the TTP's top leadership with de-facto political asylum and freedom of movement within Afghanistan from which the group is directing its campaign of violence in Pakistan, as analyzed by the United States of Peace.

Ever since the Taliban's takeover, the TTP has emphasized that the Afghan Taliban is not only a model insurgency but also the mothership of their movement. TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud has publicly reiterated his pledge of allegiance to Afghan Taliban leader Maulvi Hibatullah Akhundzada and claimed the TTP to be a branch of the Taliban in Pakistan.

Meanwhile, on their part, the Taliban are evasive on the current status and future of the TTP in Afghanistan and remain non-committal on a crackdown despite the group's violence against Pakistan.

The Pakistani government appears to have sought the intercession of long-standing ally Siraj Haqqani, a top Taliban leader, for talks with the TTP -- especially as the TTP's violence mounted after the Taliban took power. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan publicly took the position that a political settlement was the only way to end Pakistan's war with the TTP.

The Pakistani government offered conflicting accounts regarding the logic of the negotiations and the cease-fire. At one stage, Pakistani President Arif Alvi and Prime Minister Imran Khan observed that Pakistan was open to amnesty for the TTP if it laid down arms and agreed to adhere to Pakistan's constitution.

However, other Pakistani government ministers downplayed the idea that amnesty was on the table. Meanwhile, a Pakistani military spokesman recently stated that the cease-fire was agreed on at the request of the Afghan Taliban government, according to the United States Institute of Peace.

Notwithstanding the uncomfortable reality that Pakistan's support for the Taliban contributed to the US failure in Afghanistan, the Washington government retains substantial needs for its over-the-horizon counterterrorism strategy in the region -- for which it has approached Pakistan, according to the United States Institute of Peace.

Further, the growing challenge of the TTP to Pakistan creates a narrow convergence between Washington and Pakistani goals. If the threat keeps growing, it will increase Pakistan's interest in cooperation.

But for now, there are limits. Pakistan is not willing to get tougher with the Taliban government on counterterrorism, including on issues that affect its own security. Pakistan's reliance on Siraj Haqqani -- who remains a designated terrorist by the US government and close to al-Qaeda -- is also a major hurdle to meaningful cooperation. Until that changes, Pakistan is likely to only offer assistance to the US government on a narrow set of targets, with restrictive and conditional terms of cooperation. Policymakers should be clear-eyed on these limits, as analyzed by the United States Institute of Peace. (ANI)