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The India-Australia semifinal clash in the ICC Champions Trophy promises to be a fiery one, given the amount of star power, high stakes and tricky Dubai International Stadium conditions that are a part of this game. While India will be aiming to hurt Aussies once again following a heart-wrenching loss at the 2023 50-over World Cup final at home, an inexperienced Australian lineup would be hoping to prove right an extremely cliched phrase associated with their game, that is to ever underestimate them, especially in knockouts.
The India-Australia battle has been more even after years of one-sided dominance by Australia. Since 2010, both sides have won 23 matches each against each other, with two matches producing no results. While India has won its matches mainly because of Rohit Sharma's towering knocks, Virat Kohli's chase masterclass and their world-class Indian spin, the results in Australia's favour have been decided mostly by the dominance and variations of Australia's big-three pace trio of Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc, class and come-in-clutch abilities of Steve Smith and Glenn Maxwell or the more recent 'headache' inducing assaults of Travis Head. This semifinal clash would be no different, and there will be some mini battles that will decide the outcome of the match. Let us look at a few: -Rohit Sharma's battles with moving ball in powerplay The Indian skipper's hard-hitting approach to take the game on during the powerplay is a breath of fresh air in the Indian cricket environment, which has long prioritised safety, calculated risks and accumulation. Since the 2023 World Cup, the 'Hitman' has scored his runs at a strike rate of 136.8 in 20 innings and smashed 37 sixes in the first 10 overs of the innings, as per Wisden. While these numbers would have looked pretty respectable in a T20 match a few years back, they look absolutely astonishing for an ODI match, where a batter has enough time to mix caution with calculated hitting. But one cannot help but witness some issues Rohit has had with the moving ball during this phase, and Australia can use this to their advantage. As Rohit nears his 38th birthday, his reflexes, reaction time, and footwork have witnessed a considerable decline, evident in his recent Test outings. This year, in six ODIs, Rohit has been dismissed within the powerplay five times. In the ongoing Champions Trophy, the initial movement of the ball has troubled Rohit as he has registered moderate scores of 41, 20 and 15 so far. A standout dismissal was to a fiery inswinging yorker by Shaheen Shah Afridi against Pakistan, which made a mess out of Rohit's stumps and completely missed his bat. -Will Rohit find a cure to 'headache' Travis? Head has been an obstacle standing between India and an ICC trophy for a long time. Be it his well-compiled ton against Men in Blue in 50-over World Cup final that stunned the Ahmedabad crowd into silence or counter-attacking tons in the ICC World Test Championship final or during the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, Head versus India has shaped to be a contest dominated by this slogging, eye-catchy and a moustache-wearing southpaw that oozes Aussie ruthlessness both with his look and strokeplay. Since his knock at Ahmedabad, Travis has been meme'd endlessly on social media as the final villain in skipper Rohit's quest towards championship gold. In 11 games across all formats against India, led by Rohit, he has scored four centuries at an average of 68.20. In matches where Rohit has not been the captain, this average drops down considerably to 29.60. Since the 2023 WC, Head has been extremely good against pace (average 39.80, strike rate 128.8) and spin (average 133.0, strike rate 119.8) alike. The Hitman army would have to throw something really challenging to end Travis's hot streak against India. -Will Virat be leg-spinner Adam Zampa's free meal? As of late, leg-spinners have challenged Virat in ODIs, exposing another flaw in his largely formidable batting technique. Once averaging a massive 72.60 untill 2020 against leg-spin, the 36-year-old's numbers against them have dropped to just 41.00. During recent ODIs against Sri Lanka and England, leg spin troubled Virat. He played 10 dots in 14 balls against Adil Rashid in two ODIs against England, falling to him both times. While against Sri Lanka last year, leg spinner Jeffrey Vandersay prevented Virat from stamping his authority. Even during the game against Pakistan in the ongoing CT 2025, where he smashed a masterclass 100*, Virat tried staying on the backfoot against Abrar Ahmed and avoided taking him head-on. Zampa has dismissed Virat five times in ODIs. While he still averages above 52 and smashes at a strike rate of above 107 against Zampa, Virat has not enjoyed a massive upper hand he would have liked to have over Zampa. Virat is not the only one troubled by Zampa, as he has feasted on India's three key middle-order stars KL Rahul (four dismissals, average of 38.5), Hardik Pandya (four dismissals, average of 25) and even Shreyas Iyer (two dismissals, average of 28). Axar Patel, who has received a promotion to number five often to deal with spin, particularly leg-spin, could be an interesting match-up against Zampa. Averaging 46.75 at number five since last year with a half-century and some useful 40s, Axar could give India some breathing space against Zampa and attack him by himself. -India's spin against frontline Australian batters in middle overs India's tactic of employing four spinners, including Varun Chakravarthy, the 'mystery spinner' who took a five-wicket haul on his CT debut, paid off against New Zealand. With this strategy offering plenty of bowling and batting options, Men in Blue would like to go ahead with it. New Zealand, a team known for fine play against spin, could score only 109 runs at the loss of five wickets against spinners in 29 overs in the middle phase (overs 11 to 40), and their strike rate of 62.64 meant they felt suffocated against Indian tweakers. India could take control of the game in the middle overs with their spin. Since the 2023 World Cup, two of the Aussies' premier anchors, Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne, have an average of 40.71 and 33 against spin, but their strike rates of 83.09 and 77.28 do not inspire much confidence. During this period, they have been dismissed seven and 10 times, respectively, leaving Australia's fiery, risk-taking middle order vulnerable. The only way Australia can excel against Indian spin in middle overs is by carefully using Glenn Maxwell (average 40.17), Alex Carey (average 76) and Josh Inglis (average of 34.75), who have exceptional strike rates against spin in the middle-over phase, of 148.77, 102.01 and 94.56 respectively. -Would India be at the receiving end of death overs assault from Australian batters? If Australia manage to navigate through the middle-overs phase against India without losing a lot of wickets, one can safely bet on their batting firepower to take the game away from India in the death overs (41-50). Since the 2024-start, Australia has struck at a strike rate of 143.72 in the last 10 overs of the innings, better than any other team in ODIs during this time frame. Inglis (strike rate of 190.90 and five sixes), Glenn Maxwell (strike rate of 200), and Carey (strike rate of 132.86) have been exceptional for Australia in the final 10 overs, having hit 10 sixes combined. (ANI)
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