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India is on track to achieve or even exceed USD 1 trillion in exports this year if the current pace of trade continues, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said, citing trade figures of around USD 480 billion in the first six months.
Speaking at the ISID-IDRA Fourth National Conference on Thursday, Nageswaran said India was on track to achieve or even exceed USD 1 trillion in exports this financial year, provided the current pace of trade continues. "Trade numbers in the first 6 months of around USD 480 billion. If same pace continues, we are on track to exceed or even achieve USD 1 trillion exports this year," he said. The CEA also emphasised that achieving the export target would require India to strengthen domestic manufacturing capabilities and improve the competitiveness of its industries amid growing global supply disruptions. He called for linking government support to the ability of industries to compete in international markets, particularly as global supply disruptions make access to critical resources increasingly uncertain. Nageswaran said India could no longer depend on international markets to provide essential goods as reliably as they did before the pandemic. He argued that industries receiving government support must demonstrate stronger export performance or the ability to compete with import prices. "So in other words, we have to insist on quid pro quo from the industry in terms of export competitiveness, and or import parity," he said. He also cautioned that protection without investment in improving productivity could weaken industrial resilience. The presentation accompanying his remarks called for time-bound support linked to performance and exports, with protection to be withdrawn once domestic capacity becomes competitive. He cited real GDP growth of 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2026-27, manufacturing gross value-added growth of 9.2 per cent and gross fixed capital formation growth of 11.9 per cent. However, manufacturing's share of gross value added remained broadly unchanged at 14.8 per cent in 2025-26, compared with 14.7 per cent in 2022-23. The CEA had also pointed to a faster rise in core merchandise imports, which grew 19.7 per cent year-on-year during April-September 2026, compared with 16.2 per cent growth in core exports. He said geopolitical tensions and supply-side disruptions had made domestic manufacturing capacity and access to essential resources increasingly important. Nageswaran also stressed the need to build buffers of essential commodities and strengthen India's ability to supply global markets. The export outlook he outlined would, however, depend on whether the pace of trade recorded in the first half of the year is sustained in the remaining months. (ANI)
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