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The global business aviation industry could face another wave of capacity shortages as older private jets approach major maintenance milestones or retirement, with limited new aircraft production making it difficult for operators to replace them, according to a report by McKinsey.
The report said aircraft supply constraints and rising maintenance requirements could further tighten availability in a market where demand has continued to grow since the COVID-19 pandemic. The result is an older fleet that requires more maintenance, increasing MRO demand structurally rather than cyclically at a time when overhaul capacity is already tight, the report said. Aircraft manufacturers delivered 842 business jets in 2025, around 65 per cent of the peak of 1,290 recorded in 2008. Meanwhile, the global business jet fleet expanded by 730 aircraft last year, largely because fewer planes were retired rather than because manufacturers significantly increased production. Aircraft retirements fell from around 300 in 2019 to about 110 in 2025, while deliveries increased from around 810 to approximately 840 during the period, the report said. The return of older aircraft to service helped operators meet the surge in demand after the pandemic. However, McKinsey warned that many of these aircraft could soon reach major maintenance milestones, potentially leading to their retirement. With new aircraft production constrained and replacement planes becoming more expensive, this could trigger another round of capacity shortages. The pressure comes as business aviation activity continues to expand. Global business jet departures increased by an average of 4.9 per cent annually between 2019 and 2025, reaching a record 3.9 million last year. The average aircraft also flew around 19 per cent more hours in 2025 than in 2019. Infrastructure constraints are adding to the pressure on operators, with limited hangar and parking space, aircraft maintenance capacity and skilled personnel restricting the industry's ability to accommodate growing demand. NetJets Aviation President Patrick Gallagher described the challenge, saying, Infrastructure is by far the biggest challenge we contend with, as per the report. McKinsey said these constraints were making direct aircraft ownership more difficult and encouraging customers to opt for flexible arrangements such as fractional ownership, charter services and jet cards, which provide access to aircraft without requiring full ownership. The number of aircraft in fractional ownership fleets rose from 990 in 2019 to 1,510 in 2025. Their share of total business jet flight hours increased from 14 per cent to 20 per cent over the same period. The report said the industry would need to secure capacity earlier, improve aircraft utilisation and invest in maintenance, infrastructure and technology. It also expects further consolidation as companies seek the scale needed to manage rising demand and expand capacity. (ANI)
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