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El Nio conditions have strengthened further, raising concerns over Indias monsoon rainfall, even as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may partly offset its impact, according to an ICICI Bank report.
The Nio 3.4 index has risen to 2.72, higher than the 2.14 recorded during the corresponding period in 2015, the report said.Cumulative rainfall across India stood at 757 mm as of September 28, around 12 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA), with rainfall distribution remaining uneven across regions. East India recorded the highest rainfall deficit at 25 per cent below the LPA, followed by South India at 24 per cent. Northwest India and Central India recorded relatively smaller deficits of 6 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 received deficient rainfall, 18 recorded normal rainfall and one reported excess rainfall. Between September 1 and 28, all-India rainfall was 5 per cent below the LPA. However, a recent improvement in rainfall has helped narrow the overall deficit. The report noted that the IOD index has entered the positive zone at 0.76, which could partly offset the adverse impact of El Nio in the coming days. The rainfall deficit has also coincided with lower kharif sowing compared with last year. As of September 25, 2026, around 110.8 million hectares had been sown, down 1.2 per cent from 112.1 million hectares during the corresponding period last year. However, the area sown stood at 100.3 per cent of the normal level. The decline in kharif acreage was mainly driven by rice, with sowing falling 3.6 per cent year-on-year to 43.1 million hectares. In contrast, pulses acreage increased 2 per cent from a year earlier, supported by a 12.4 per cent rise in urad sowing and a 2.8 per cent increase in arhar acreage. Moong acreage, however, declined 3.7 per cent year-on-year, the report said. Meanwhile, reservoir storage across the country remained below last years level. As of September 24, total live storage in 150 reservoirs stood at 130 billion cubic metres (BCM), equivalent to 71 per cent of their combined capacity of 182.4 BCM at full reservoir level. ICICI Bank said the improvement in reservoir storage in the Eastern, Western and Central regions compared with previous weeks could provide some cushion against below-normal rainfall. The report, however, noted that the strengthening El Nio conditions remain a key risk to the monsoon outlook. (ANI)
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