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A potential US restriction on diesel exports could initially lower domestic diesel prices but eventually push up gasoline prices as rising inventories force refiners to cut output, Goldman Sachs said, while warning that the effects could extend to diesel markets in Europe and other regions.
Goldman Sachs in a recent research report said restrictions on diesel exports, including quotas, were a plausible scenario, although not its base case. The bank modelled a hypothetical ban beginning in early October and lasting through at least December, with a 90-day restriction reportedly under consideration. US diesel net exports have risen from 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 to around 1.6 mb/d in recent months, while the national average retail diesel price has climbed to USD 6.5 per gallon, according to the report. Goldman Sachs estimates that, while storage capacity remains available, every week of an export ban could put about USD 0.25 per gallon of downward pressure on average US retail diesel prices as inventories build. However, the impact could reverse as storage approaches capacity. The report estimates that US diesel inventories could theoretically fill within 9-10 weeks if exports fell by 1.6 mb/d, although refinery cuts and higher diesel demand could delay that point in practice. Once storage becomes constrained, weaker diesel prices could compress refining margins and encourage refiners to reduce production, affecting gasoline and jet fuel output as well. Goldman Sachs estimates that once diesel storage is full, each additional week of an export ban could put about USD 0.30 per gallon of upward pressure on US retail gasoline prices. The bank said gasoline prices could begin facing upward pressure even before storage reaches its theoretical limit as refiners reduce output. Outside the US, the bank expects diesel prices to rise. Each week of an export ban could increase European wholesale diesel prices by about USD 3 per barrel, or just under 2%, although releases from European strategic reserves could offset around half of the increase. Looking beyond a potential ban, Goldman Sachs said US diesel prices would likely reconnect with international prices once restrictions are lifted. However, global refined-product prices could remain higher than they otherwise would have been because of lower inventories resulting from temporary cuts in US refinery output. (ANI)
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