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India could see fresh opportunities to expand exports to Canada as bilateral economic ties gain momentum amid ongoing negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and a shift in Canada's import landscape following its trade tensions with the US, according to Rubix Data Sciences.
The two countries are targeting an expansion of two-way trade in goods and services to USD 50 billion by 2030, while CEPA negotiations, launched in March 2026, have already reached the third round. The next phase of engagement is expected to focus on strengthening cooperation across energy, critical minerals, technology, innovation and resilient supply chains. The latest analysis by Rubix Data Sciences shows that India's goods exports to Canada rose from USD 3.8 billion in FY2022 to USD 4.7 billion in FY2026, registering a 6 per cent compound annual growth rate. Exports also grew 10.6 per cent year-on-year in FY2026, pointing to renewed momentum in the Canadian market. At the same time, imports from Canada fell sharply to USD 3.3 billion in FY2026, from a peak of USD 4.6 billion in FY2024. The 26.1 per cent YoY contraction in imports helped India's trade balance swing from a USD 0.2 billion deficit in FY2025 to a USD 1.4 billion surplus in FY2026, the strongest surplus recorded during the FY2022-FY2026 period. India's export basket is also gradually moving towards higher-value and manufactured products. Pharmaceuticals accounted for 11 per cent of exports in FY2026, up from 8 per cent in FY2022, while auto components and diamonds also increased their shares. The combined share of the top five export products rose from 19 per cent to 23 per cent. The report also identified a potential opening for Indian exporters following Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US imports. Canada plans counter-tariffs of 15 per cent, 25 per cent and 50 per cent on specified US products from September 8, covering sectors such as steel, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics. India exported an indicative USD 1 billion of products across these focus sectors to Canada in FY2026. Machinery and mechanical appliances accounted for USD 379.44 million of these exports, while articles of iron and steel contributed USD 292.51 million and electrical machinery and equipment USD 226.01 million. This existing supplier base could allow Indian companies to capture additional Canadian demand as businesses diversify away from tariff-affected US suppliers, although product-level tariffs, competitiveness and market-access conditions will determine the actual opportunity. (ANI)
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