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With all-India rainfall deficit narrowing to 12 per cent along with increasing reservoir storage, there is an expectation of above-normal rains in Central and Western India in the near term, however El Nino risks still remain, as per a report by Dolat Capital.
Although rainfall coverage improved further during the week, the distribution of rainfall shifted across categories as per the report. Share of the area recording deficient rainfall declined to 36 per cent from 40 per cent a week earlier, while areas witnessing large deficient rainfall remained nil. At the same time, the share of areas receiving excess rainfall rose sharply to 11 per cent from just 1 per cent in the previous week. The area receiving normal rainfall, however, declined to 51 per cent from 57 per cent. According to Dolat Capital, the improvement was partly driven by areas receiving excess rainfall rather than deficient regions transitioning to normal, indicating more intense rainfall in some parts of the country rather than a broad-based improvement in rainfall distribution. "Looking ahead, IMD's near-term outlook points to above-normal rainfall over Central and Western India, though the strengthening El Nino and a near neutral IOD keep the broader seasonal risk alive heading into August," Dolat Capital said. Meanwhile, Kharif sowing progressed further during the week, with the total acreage reaching 894.2 lakh hectares as of July 31 as compared with 920.7 lakh hectares in 2025. The gap in sowing compared with the corresponding period last year narrowed, although crop-wise trends remained mixed. At the same time, oilseeds turned the corner most decisively, moving into a marginal surplus over last year after trailing through much of the season, while coarse cereals also closed a meaningful part of their gap. For oilseeds, "Sowing reached 172.3 lakh ha compared with 171.1 lakh ha last year, turning into a marginal surplus of 1.2 lakh ha from a 3.4 lakh ha deficit the previous week," it noted. Rice sowing, however, slipped slightly further behind last year's pace after showing signs of catching up in recent weeks. Pulses recorded only a marginal improvement, while sugarcane acreage remained unchanged. (ANI)
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