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Oil inventories in some of the world's largest economies are headed to multi-decade lows as the West Asia conflict takes a toll on oil supply, a report by the US Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.
"Oil inventories in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development in our forecast fall to their lowest levels since 2003," the report said. Total oil inventories in the OECD nations will fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December, the EIA said. This is the lowest level since 2003, when EIA started maintaining records. The rapid drawdown from inventories to meet the 11 million barrels per day of shortfall in May has led to oil prices remaining elevated compared to their pre-conflict level. "Under our assumptions, we expect global oil inventories will fall by an average of 6.3 million b/d in 2Q26 and by 7.6 million b/d in 3Q26," the report said. The EIA sees Brent crude oil prices at USD105 a barrel in June and July in the spot market. The forecast comes on the back of the EIA, assuming that the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively closed in the near term. "In our forecast, oil shipments through the strait resume in the third quarter of 2026 (3Q26); however, we assume that it will likely take several months to ramp up to pre-conflict traffic, which we do not think will occur until early 2027," EIA added. The EIA expects the US gasoline prices to increase by around 50 per cent in 2026 and nearly 40 per cent in 2027 compared to what it predicted in February. The agency has forecast that global oil demand will decrease by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026. This is against the agency's May forecast of a rise in oil consumption by 0.2 million barrels per day and the February forecast of a 1.2 million barrels per day increase in demand. (ANI)
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