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Global demand for data centres continues to significantly outpace available supply, creating a structural shortage that is expected to persist for years as artificial intelligence (AI) adoption accelerates, according to a report by Jefferies.
The brokerage said that despite aggressive capital expenditure plans by major technology companies and a rapid expansion in AI infrastructure, physical constraints across the supply chain are preventing the industry from delivering enough capacity to meet demand. "Demand for data centers continues to outpace supply, with hyperscaler capex accelerating and chip volume forecasts implying GWs of capacity ahead of feasible data center delivery," the report said. It added that "Demand is not the issue, but the supply chain is." According to Jefferies' proprietary data centre capacity analysis, only 8.9 gigawatts (GW) of capacity became operational in 2025, while demand reached nearly 21.1 GW, resulting in a deficit of about 12 GW. The report highlighted that spending by hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta is rising sharply. Jefferies estimates hyperscaler capital expenditure will reach 770 billion US dollars in calendar year 2026, representing a 74 per cent increase year-on-year and nearly five times the 156 billion dollars invested in 2023. At the same time, cloud service backlogs have surged to around 2 trillion US dollars, reflecting continued strong demand for computing infrastructure driven by AI applications. Jefferies also noted that semiconductor shipment forecasts point to a substantial rise in AI-related power demand. Based on projected accelerator chip volumes, global AI data centre power demand could reach around 30 GW in 2026, with nearly 19 GW expected in North America alone. The report warned that multiple supply-side bottlenecks are limiting the pace at which new data centres can be built. These include shortages of engineering and construction labour, cooling equipment, power infrastructure, transformers, electrical components and backup generators. The brokerage believes the persistent gap between demand and supply is benefiting data centre operators, infrastructure developers and equipment suppliers. Vacancy rates remain extremely low across key markets, while leasing activity and rental rates continue to rise. Jefferies further stated that from 2021 to 2025, the cumulative deficit of undelivered data centre capacity reached 20.4 GW and is likely to widen further as AI adoption drives sustained demand for computing infrastructure. The report noted that hyperscalers may increasingly commit to capacity several years in advance as supply constraints continue to delay project delivery timelines. (ANI)
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