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India markets are poised for long-term growth despite geopolitical risks, according to a report by Indian financial services company, Emkay Global. The report released on Tuesday retained a constructive outlook on Indian equities despite heightened geopolitical tensions and elevated crude oil prices, projecting the Nifty to reach 29,000 by March 2027.
In its India Strategy report, the brokerage said Indian markets remain supported by resilient domestic fundamentals even as global uncertainty linked to the prolonged Middle-East conflict continues to weigh on investor sentiment. "While global geopolitical developments and elevated crude prices may continue to create intermittent volatility, India's structural growth drivers remain intact," said Seshadri Sen, Head of Research & Strategist at Emkay Global Financial Services. The report highlighted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for over eleven weeks has pushed Brent crude prices into the USD 105-110 per barrel range, increasing concerns over inflation, fiscal pressures and slowing growth. Despite these risks, Emkay maintained its FY27 Nifty EPS estimate at Rs 1,230 and expects earnings growth of nearly 13 per cent. "Q4FY26 earnings season has begun on a relatively steady note," the brokerage said, adding that nearly 46 per cent of companies under its coverage delivered earnings above expectations, while only 29 per cent missed estimates. According to the report, the Nifty is currently trading at around 19.2 times FY27 forward earnings, close to its five-year long-term average valuation. The brokerage stated that any sharp market correction arising from global concerns should be viewed as a tactical buying opportunity rather than a structural threat to India's long-term growth story. "Our Mar-27 Nifty target of 29,000 at 19.2 PER remains intact. We expect normalcy to return soon and any weakness is an entry opportunity," the report said. Emkay warned that sustained high crude oil prices could materially impact India's macroeconomic indicators. Its scenario analysis suggested that if Brent crude averages USD 100 per barrel, India's current account deficit could widen to 2.4 per cent of GDP while growth may moderate to 6.3 per cent. In an extreme scenario where crude rises to USD 130 per barrel, GDP growth could decline to 5.5 per cent while inflation may rise to 5 per cent, it added. The report further noted that recent fuel price hikes of Rs 3 per litre cover only around 20 per cent of current under-recoveries faced by oil marketing companies, indicating the possibility of further increases if crude prices remain elevated. The brokerage said supportive domestic policies such as income tax cuts, GST reductions and cumulative RBI rate cuts of nearly 125 basis points since February 2025 are expected to support liquidity and revive private investment. "Earnings resilience, policy support, easing domestic inflationary pressures and ongoing capex investments continue to provide a strong foundation for Indian equities," Sen noted. (ANI)
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