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India's tractor industry is likely to witness muted growth over the next few years as concerns around a weaker monsoon weigh on rural demand, though strong reservoir levels and replacement demand could provide some support, according to a report by HSBC Global Investment Research.
The report noted that the sector's outlook has turned subdued due to the anticipated impact of El Nino, which historically tends to weaken monsoon conditions and negatively affect tractor sales. "Historically, El Nino years or the subsequent year are associated with declines in tractor volumes," the report said. Despite this risk, water reservoir levels across India remain about 24 per cent above the long-term average, which could partly offset the impact of a weak monsoon and support crop sowing in the near term. Higher water availability is expected to support the upcoming kharif sowing season, though a strong El Nino could still affect the rabi sowing cycle later in the year. HSBC estimates the tractor industry will record a 0-2 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in volumes between FY26 and FY28, following a high base in FY26 when volumes are expected to grow around 21 per cent. The report highlighted that replacement demand will remain a key driver for the sector over the next two to three years, supported by strong tractor sales during FY09-FY14 that are now reaching replacement age. Nearly 45 per cent of tractor sales currently come from replacement demand, providing some resilience to overall industry volumes. In the longer term, the outlook for the industry remains positive. India currently has about 11 million tractors, with penetration at roughly 7 per cent of total land parcels and around 47 per cent of eligible agricultural households, suggesting significant room for expansion over time. Regionally, reservoir levels are strongest in the northern region, which accounts for roughly 35 per cent of tractor sales and is best positioned to withstand El Nino-related risks. The report concludes that while near-term growth may remain subdued due to weather risks and a high base, strong water reserves, replacement demand and low penetration levels are expected to support the tractor industry's medium- to long-term growth potential. (ANI)
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