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India's residential real estate market enters calendar year 2026 on a foundation of stability rather than exuberance, following a 2025 performance that marked a clear transition from post-pandemic acceleration to a more mature and disciplined growth phase.
According to PropTiger Residential insights report, the upcoming year is expected to be defined by calibrated supply, timing-sensitive demand, and widening regional divergence. These structural shifts are anticipated to continue shaping market behaviour as the industry moves away from broad national cycles toward outcomes shaped by localised economic and regulatory dynamics. City-level trends from the end of 2025 showed a selective recovery across major hubs. Mumbai MMR led the rebound in the final quarter with sales rising to 25,617 units, though volumes remained 16.6 per cent below the peak seen in early 2025. Bengaluru recorded a strong sequential recovery to close at 13,931 units, reflecting an 18 per cent rise compared to the start of the year. In contrast, Pune recorded less than 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth, while the National Capital Region remained in a phase of consolidation with a moderate year-on-year decline of approximately 6 per cent. Hyderabad continued to demonstrate structural strength with 14,453 units sold, reinforcing its position as a primary end-user-driven market. Residential demand in 2026 is expected to remain resilient but measured, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and easing interest rate visibility. The report notes that buyer behaviour is likely to stay highly selective, with decisions increasingly driven by "price-value alignment, project execution quality, and micro-market fundamentals rather than speculative momentum". While southern cities that demonstrated low volatility in 2025 are expected to carry forward stronger momentum, markets such as NCR and select western pockets may require a longer adjustment period before achieving sustained recovery. Developers are expected to maintain a cautious, absorption-led supply strategy throughout 2026, aligning launches with visible demand amid elevated input costs. Political and administrative factors will also influence supply timing, particularly in Chennai and Kolkata, where upcoming state election cycles are likely to result in an "intentional moderation of new launches in early 2026". Residential prices are expected to remain firm across most major markets, supported by cost pressures and limited appetite for aggressive discounting. However, price appreciation is likely to remain moderate and uneven, varying by city and segment. The report indicates that premium and upper mid-income segments may witness selective pricing resistance. Consequently, developers are expected to rely more on "targeted incentives, flexible payment plans, and phased offerings rather than headline price corrections to drive absorption". Overall, 2026 is projected to be a year of consolidation and balance marked by steady end-user demand and disciplined supply responses. (ANI)
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