Cement prices likely to revive in Q4FY26, industry to grow 9-10% in FY26: Systematix Research

According to the report, the near-term outlook for cement prices remains soft, but a recovery is anticipated towards the end of the fiscal.

It stated "Prices are expected to revive in Q4FY26. The industry is expected to grow by 9-10 per cent in this fiscal".

Despite some short-term challenges, the report remains positive on the cement sector from a medium-to-long-term perspective, supported by improving demand conditions and a likely pick-up in government spending.

It noted that the industry's growth in FY26 is expected to be driven largely by an acceleration in both central and state government capital expenditure.

The capex cycle is anticipated to gather momentum, which would provide a key demand push for cement consumption across infrastructure and housing projects.

The report also highlighted that larger cement players are expected to account for nearly 65 per cent of the total industry capacity, putting them in a stronger position to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery.

During the third quarter, the report stated that the cement prices remained under pressure. The report expects an average decline of 1.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter in realisations.

Regionally, prices in the southern market witnessed the steepest correction, falling by around 2-3 per cent QoQ, followed by the eastern region.

In contrast, prices in the western, northern and central regions remained largely stable during the period.

However, the report pointed out that the impact of softer pricing is likely to be partly offset by lower power and fuel costs, along with a reduction in freight expenses.

For the third quarter of FY26, the brokerage has factored in robust growth across key financial metrics for its coverage universe. It expects volume growth of 10.5 per cent year-on-year, revenue growth of 9.7 per cent, and a sharp 29 per cent growth in profit after tax on a YoY basis.

Overall, while near-term pricing pressures may persist, the report believes the cement sector's medium-to-long-term outlook remains constructive, supported by demand recovery, cost tailwinds and a favourable industry structure led by large, efficient players. (ANI)