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Mumbai's real estate market achieved a significant milestone in 2025 as housing registrations reached an all-time high, despite growing concerns regarding affordability and a transition into a mid-cycle stage for the sector.
According to a report from Nuvama Institutional Equities, the city recorded 150,294 registered units over the calendar year, representing a 6 per cent increase from the previous year. The total value of these registrations climbed 11 per cent year-on-year to approximately INR 2.25 trillion. This performance was bolstered by a strong year-end surge in December 2025, which saw 14,424 units registered, a 16 per cent rise compared to the same month in 2024. The December figures marked the second-highest registration volume for the month, trailing only Dec-20. During that previous peak, activity was driven by a record low stamp duty rate of 2 per cent and buyers accelerating purchases before scheduled rate hikes. While current volumes remain robust, the Nuvama report indicates that the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) has entered a mid-cycle stage characterized by a sharp rise in supply and moderating volume growth. Affordability has surfaced as a primary challenge for the housing space. Knight Frank data cited in the report shows a decline in the market share of affordable properties priced below INR 10 million, which fell to 42 per cent in Dec-25 from 44 per cent a year earlier. Conversely, properties in the INR 10-20 million bracket saw their share grow to 32 per cent, while high-end units priced above INR 50 million increased their share to 7 per cent. Demand remained concentrated in the Western suburbs, which accounted for 57 per cent of total registrations in December. Central suburbs followed with a 29 per cent share. In terms of consumer preference, units up to 1,000 square feet remained the dominant choice, representing 82 per cent of the market. Specifically, apartments sized between 500 and 1,000 square feet were the most demanded, making up 46 per cent of total transactions. The report forecasts only moderate price growth going ahead. The fact that demand (by volume) has already crossed the peak of the previous upcycle means that affordability needs to improve to take absorption to a new high. In the near term, the report noted that a long-lasting solution to concerns is unlikely due to two reasons. First, weak volume growth amid falling home affordability and inadequate availability of mid-income houses. Second, job generation on the back of tariff wars/K-shaped growth in the economy. Nuvama believes volatility shall persist and stocks shall continue to be range-bound. (ANI)
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