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India has the potential to raise its merchandise exports to Russia from about USD 5 billion to nearly USD 35 billion by 2030, according to a GTRI report, as President Vladimir Putin's visit to Delhi places renewed focus on narrowing the wide trade gap between the two countries.
The report shows that even though bilateral trade is touching USD 70 billion, India's exports stay below USD 5 billion while imports from Russia remain dominated by crude oil. In FY2025, India exported goods worth USD 4.9 billion but imported USD 63.8 billion, leaving a trade deficit of USD 58.9 billion. Crude oil alone formed USD 50.3 billion of these imports, turning the trade relationship into one centred almost entirely on energy. The GTRI Report explains that India supplies only 2.4 per cent of Russia's USD 202.6 billion import market. It notes that Russia is a large global buyer in many categories where India is also a major exporter, yet India's share remains very small. This, the report says, is where the opportunity lies. Food and agriculture show the widest gaps. Russia imported USD 13 billion worth of food items in 2024, but India's exports across fruits, oils, meat and dairy together stayed under USD 250 million. Even in areas where India is a strong global exporter, such as meat, oilseeds and fruits, its share in Russia is mostly below five per cent. Processed food is similar, with India's sales remaining very limited despite strong global capability. The pattern continues in consumer goods and chemicals. Russia imported USD 3.13 billion of perfumery and essential oils and USD 1.07 billion of soaps and detergents, but India's presence stayed below three to four per cent in most segments. Pharmaceuticals, although India's biggest export category to Russia, also reflected low penetration. Russia imported USD 11.8 billion worth of medicines in 2024, while India's share was USD 413.5 million, despite being one of the world's largest pharma exporters. Textiles, apparel and footwear show some of the sharpest mismatches. Russia bought billions worth of fibres, fabrics and clothing, yet India's exports were a fraction of its global strengths. Big consumer industries like vehicles, furniture and toys displayed the same pattern, with India supplying only tiny amounts to a market that buys heavily from the world. The report states that expanding India's exports will not depend only on identifying high-potential product lines but also on fixing payment challenges. With Russian banks limited in accessing SWIFT, exporters face delays and uncertainty. The GTRI analysis says a modern and reliable rupee-rouble settlement system, supported by both sides' banks, is essential for building confidence and speeding up transactions. The report adds that India and Russia had earlier solved this problem through a fixed exchange arrangement during the Soviet era. A similar modern system, along with trade missions and stronger institutional support, can help India shift its Russia trade from mainly oil to a wider mix of goods that reach stores and factories across the country. (ANI)
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