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Global commodity prices are expected to fall by nearly 7 per cent in 2026, continuing a fourth straight year of decline. The fall is being linked to slower global economic growth, trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and abundant oil supplies. Precious metals, however, are projected to rise by around 5 per cent next year, building on a strong investment-led gain of over 40 per cent in 2025, according to a report by financial services firm Prabhudas Lilladher.
In the metals segment, global copper prices touched nearly USD 11,200 per tonne due to tight supply and mining disruptions. As per the report, Gold reached a record high of USD 4,370 an ounce in late October 2025, while Indian gold prices hovered around Rs 1,27,500 per 10 grams amid festive and safe-haven demand. The report also said base metals like copper, aluminium, and zinc are expected to remain supported by limited supply and steady demand, though sharp gains are unlikely without major disruptions. Precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to retain their safe-haven status, with prices responding to movements in the U.S. dollar, inflation trends, and geopolitical factors. Energy prices are likely to dip about 10 per cent in 2026, following a 12 per cent drop in 2025. Metals and minerals are expected to remain steady, while agricultural commodities may edge lower due to ample supply. In October, global crude markets faced challenges, but India's fuel consumption climbed to a five-month high. Demand rose 7.7 per cent from September to 20.17 million metric tonnes, boosted by post-monsoon transport needs. Gasoline demand increased by 8 per cent and diesel by 12.2 per cent month-on-month. The domestic price of oil-linked natural gas for November was set at USD 6.55 per MMBtu, down from USD 6.96 in October. The report noted that while oversupply from OPEC+ and rising exports from non-OPEC nations continue to pressure prices, geopolitical shocks or a rebound in industrial fuel demand could cause short-term spikes. Agricultural commodities also reflected seasonal patterns. The Agricultural Commodity Price Index (ACPI) declined in October due to good harvests and abundant global supplies of grains, oilseeds, and beverages. In India, steady arrivals of wheat, rice, and oilseeds kept domestic prices stable. Prabhudas Lilladher said that while extreme weather, higher input costs, or stronger global trade could lift prices, slower growth and large inventories may push them lower. Looking ahead, the firm projects Brent crude (crude oil from the North Sea that serves as a global price benchmark for about two-thirds of the world's crude oil) to average between USD 60 and 70 per barrel in 2026, with downside risk to USD 56 if surplus supplies persist and upside potential beyond USD 85 if disruptions occur. Gold may rise to USD 4,500 per ounce, while silver is expected to trade between USD 50 and 60 per ounce through 2025. The World Bank anticipates a mild 2 per cent decline in the agricultural price index in 2026, keeping the overall commodity outlook subdued. (ANI)
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