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Gold remains Goldman Sachs' "highest-conviction long commodity," with analysts citing strong private and institutional demand, rising equity traded fund (ETF) holdings, and central bank purchases as key drivers of the rally that has lifted the metal nearly 47 per cent to around USD 3,865 per ounce.
At the time of filing this report, gold is trading around USD 3,937 per ounce on the international market. In India, the yellow metals is trading at approximately Rs 1.21 lakh per 10 grams. According to the latest Precious Comment report from Goldman Sachs' Commodities Research, gold has broken out of its earlier range of USD 3,200-3,450 per ounce, rallying 14 per cent since August 26. The investment bank attributes the surge mainly to three conviction buyers: rapidly rising Western exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings, renewed central bank demand after a seasonal lull, and stronger speculative positioning. The report said upside risks to Goldman's mid-2026 gold price forecast of USD 4,000 per ounce and USD 4,300 by December 2026 have intensified. "The upside risks to our USD 4,000/toz mid-2026 and USD 4,300/toz December 2026 gold price forecast have intensified" noted the report. It says, speculative positioning explains only a modest part of the latest rally, rather it suggests a larger underlying shift in investor behaviour. In September alone, western equity traded fund (ETF) holdings rose by 109 tonnes, far exceeding the model's prediction of 17 tonnes based on falling US interest rates. This, the report said, signals that private investors are actively diversifying into gold amid concerns over developed market fixed income. "The gold market is relatively small with Western gold ETF holdings worth only about 1.5 per cent of privately owned US Treasuries." the report noted, adding that even a small diversification move could drive another large leg higher in prices. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed gold as its top long-term commodity recommendation, citing, additional price upside driven by structurally higher central bank demand, potential for further private sector diversification, and strong hedging properties during downside risk scenarios less favourable for traditional equity-bond portfolios. The report said that investors should view gold not just as a growth hedge but as a key portfolio stabiliser amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. (ANI)
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