Mixed rainfall in India's agri regions, floods and deficits, raise food inflation risk: Report

The report highlighted that while the country has received an overall rainfall surplus of 7 per cent as per the latest data, the disparity across regions continues to remain a challenge.

It stated "The key agri states in the core productive zone of north western India are facing a mixed situation this year with a few states like Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana grappling with flood like situations, while UP continues to be in a deficit...... there is an upward risk emanating from the recent flooding cases in north Indian states which have categorically impacted the paddy sowing in Punjab".

The progress of rainfall has been largely in line with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) prediction of above-normal showers.

The cumulative rainfall deviation from 1st June 2025 to 22nd September 2025 stood at 7 per cent of the long-period average, compared with a 5 per cent surplus during the same period in 2024.

However, the uneven spatial distribution of rains has emerged as a significant concern. The north-western region has registered a sharp surplus of 31 per cent, compared to 6 per cent last year.

Within this region, states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are facing flood-like situations, severely impacting crops. On the other hand, the eastern region continues to face a deficit of 18 per cent. Southern India has seen a surplus of 9 per cent, lower than the 15 per cent surplus recorded last year.

Key agriculture-producing states are grappling with varying challenges. While Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana are dealing with floods, Uttar Pradesh has reported a rainfall deficit of 4 per cent.

Gujarat, Telangana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal have witnessed good surpluses, strengthening crop prospects.

In contrast, states like Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, and Bihar are still facing rainfall shortfalls. Bihar, in particular, is seeing a deficit of 28 per cent, the same as last year.

Data from the Department of Consumer Affairs shows that while vegetables, pulses, and spices prices moderated in August, other essentials such as cereals, sugar, milk, mustard oil, soya oil, and sunflower oil witnessed month-on-month increases.

With CPI ex-vegetables currently below 4 per cent, a cooling in vegetable inflation remains crucial to keeping overall inflation stable.

The report noted that the CPI for September 2025 is currently tracking at around 1.56 per cent. However, there is a clear upward risk arising from recent flooding in north Indian states, which has directly impacted paddy sowing in Punjab. (ANI)