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Indian container cargo is expected to post a resilient growth of 8 per cent in FY26 despite facing multiple geopolitical disruptions, according to a report by CareEdge Ratings.
The report estimated that container volume in India will reach around 380 million metric tonnes (MMT) in FY26. It stated, "Indian C,ontainer Cargo to Post Resilient Growth of 8 per cent in FY26 Amid Geopolitical Disruptions." This growth will be supported by factors such as capacity expansion, rising transhipment activity and the slated completion of the entire Western Dedicated Freight Corridor, which is expected to improve cargo handling efficiency. In FY25, Indian ports handled 1,593 MMT of cargo, marking a growth of 3 per cent over FY24. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period FY23-FY25 remained at around 5 per cent, reflecting steady performance amid global trade challenges. However, the report also pointed out that global trade activity continues to face headwinds from geopolitical and trade disruptions, and Indian ports have not been fully immune. For instance, cargo volumes on Gujarat's coast fell by 6 per cent in May 2025 due to heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. Similarly, the United States imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Indian imports, impacting major export sectors such as home textiles, gems, shrimp, engineering components, and speciality chemicals. While the US accounts for about 20 per cent of India's exports, its share in sea-based trade excluding electronic items is only around 5 per cent. This suggests that the direct impact on port volumes from US tariffs will remain moderate. India's container cargo had already shown strong momentum in FY25, growing by 11 per cent year-on-year and reaching 351 MMT, which was higher than CareEdge Ratings' estimates. Over the last three years ending FY25, container cargo registered a healthy CAGR of 8 per cent. The strong growth was attributed to buoyant demand, inventory rebuilding amid geopolitical tensions, and increasing cargo containerisation. Notably, the growth momentum continued despite disruptions across major global sea routes, including the Panama Canal and the Red Sea crisis. Looking ahead, the report expects overall port volume to grow by around 2 per cent in FY26. This projection factors in a 100 to 150 basis points (bps) impact on container volumes due to US tariffs and a likely decline in coal imports. (ANI)
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