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India's household savings are expected to generate cumulative inflows of around USD 9.5 trillion into financial assets over the next ten years, according to a report by Goldman Sachs.
The report highlighted that household financial savings in India are projected to average around 13 per cent of GDP over the coming decade. It said, "India's household financial savings to average around 13 per cent of GDP over the next ten years as a base-case (vs. average 11.6 per cent of GDP observed in the previous ten years)." The rise in financial savings will translate into significant inflows across various instruments, reflecting the gradual shift of households from physical to financial assets. Out of the total inflows, Goldman Sachs expects a large portion, over USD 4 trillion, to be allocated to long-term savings products such as insurance, pension, and retirement funds. Robust inflows into equities and mutual funds are also projected, estimated at around USD 0.8 trillion. Bank deposits, meanwhile, are expected to attract around USD 3.5 trillion. The report noted that this scale of inflows mirrors the patterns seen in other countries as incomes rise and financial systems mature. As households increasingly prefer financial assets over traditional physical assets like real estate and gold, the process of financialization of savings is expected to deepen in India. The report identified three key implications of higher household financial savings in the country. Firstly, these inflows will provide a stable funding base for India's corporate capital expenditure cycle, without materially widening the current account deficit. Secondly, they are likely to support the long-duration bond markets, helping anchor long-end sovereign bond yields. This could also prompt the issuance of longer tenure quasi-sovereign or corporate bonds, thereby facilitating infrastructure financing. Thirdly, the rise in financial savings is expected to expand retail participation in capital markets further and boost the demand for professional wealth management services. The report added that households' decisions to allocate their savings between financial and physical assets depend on several factors including income, inflation, interest rates, risk preferences, and access to financial markets. In advanced economies, a clear shift has been observed towards financial assets, with households increasingly investing in pension funds, capital markets, and insurance products. However, in many emerging markets, a significant portion of household savings continues to flow into physical assets like real estate and gold. This indicates a large potential for further financialization of household savings in India. (ANI)
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