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India may face an annual export loss of USD 5 to USD 6.75 billion if demand declines by 20 to 30 per cent because of 15 per cent tariff imposed by US, said a report by Ventura Securities.
Given the country's FY25 GDP of around USD 3.3 trillion (Rs 287 lakh crore), this shortfall could reduce GDP growth by approximately 0.15 to 0.2 per cent, the report added. It further said that India's industry is expected to face short- to medium-term challenges due to US tariffs, however, during this period, the sector is likely to step up efforts to diversify its markets, with aim to maintain growth momentum. US President Donald Trump has imposed 25 per cent tariff on goods from India and an additional penalty if India imports crude from Russia. However, Ventura report highlighted that even with a 25 per cent US tariff, India is still competitive. "While export volumes are bound to be impacted, India can cushion much of the impact by leveraging the recently concluded FTAs with Australia, UAE, EFTA, ASEAN, and SAARC countries," the report added. While the sanctions are effective from today, higher tariffs will be imposed from August 7 onwards till a bilateral trade agreement is signed with the U.S. India continues to engage with the American counterparts to iron out the trade deal. "Negotiations are expected to resume mid-August and the deal is likely to be clinched by October. In this case, the pain would be relatively short-term with an improved trade trajectory," the report added. Over the past few months, India and the US have been negotiating for an interim trade deal, but there were some reservations from the Indian side on the US demand for opening up the agricultural and dairy sectors for the US. Agriculture and dairy are critical for India as these two sectors provide livelihood opportunities to a large section of its people. India reportedly faces US demands, including allowing remanufactured goods, opening up agriculture and dairy, accepting genetically modified (GM) feed, and adopting US rules on digital trade and product standards. Experts have stated that the decision will have a varied impact on different sectors. (ANI)
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