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The US is facing a deceleration of crude oil production growth in 2025 than previously anticipated, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
The global commodities information services provider projects a sharper year-on-year overall production decline in 2026 in the US than previously anticipated. The latest S&P Global Commodity Insights Global Crude Oil Markets Short-term Outlook finds that the US, which has been the biggest source of global supply growth in recent years, will be "disproportionately impacted" by a combination of sluggish global oil demand growth and supply surplus. Following the most recent decision by OPEC+ members to proceed with the accelerated unwinding of production cuts, along with supply growth elsewhere, year-on-year global crude oil (and condensate) production growth is expected to be 2.2 million barrels per day for the second half of 2025, compared to just 390,000 barrels per day of expected crude oil demand growth. S&P Global Commodity Insights said that annual global total oil (liquids) demand growth for 2025 is expected to be the weakest since 2001, excluding the economic downturn during the 2008-09 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, averaging 770,000 barrels per day. The S&P report has revised down the crude oil price outlook, with Dated Brent ranging from the mid-USD 60s per barrel to USD 50 per barrel or below for a time (low USD 60-upper USD 40s for WTI). Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights, states, "The oil price is currently defenseless. Seasonal demand in the northern hemisphere summer may obscure the impact for a bit, but eventually there will be too much crude oil in the market absent a change in production trends." The report asserted that the US is expected to bear the brunt of the impacts from an oversupplied market compared to other sources of non-OPEC supply, such as Canada, Guyana, and Brazil. "The United States has been the biggest source of supply growth in recent years and a factor in OPEC+ supply restraint. Signs of weak U.S. crude supply growth and decline could begin to alter oil market psychology. However, much will still depend on the future course of OPEC+ production and oil demand," said Ian Stewart, Associate Director, S&P Global Commodity Insights. (ANI)
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