Metal prices likely to keep upward pressure on WPI in coming months: Union Bank of India

Despite a drop in WPI in April 2025, metals have shown a sequential pickup, indicating they may continue to influence the inflation trend.

The report said "While food prices are expected on firm up in the next couple of months, metal prices may keep an upward pressure on WPI".

Core WPI, which excludes food and fuel, moderated to 1.40 per cent in April from 1.59 per cent in March. The rise in metal prices, especially in segments like iron and steel, played a key role in this trend.

The report stated that this happened even though global metal indices showed a different movement, possibly due to a time lag in price changes in various sub-sectors.

Other parts of core WPI that saw a month-on-month rise included chemicals and chemical products, fabricated metal products (excluding machinery and equipment), machinery and equipment, and other manufactured goods.

However, some segments like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and paper & paper products recorded a month-on-month decline.

The headline WPI dropped sharply to a thirteen-month low of 0.85 per cent in April 2025 from 2.05 per cent in March. The drop was mainly driven by a fall in the fuel index, which was impacted by a sharp drop in global oil prices due to rising recession concerns.

Fuel WPI remained in negative territory, falling further to -4.35 per cent in April from -1.10 per cent in March.

Looking ahead, the report expects the WPI trend to be influenced by rising food and commodity prices, especially oil and metals, which have shown a pickup after the US-China trade deal.

It said "Going forward, trends in WPI are likely to be led by sequential rise in food prices along with commodity prices (especially oil and metals) which are on sequential pickup post US-China trade deal".

While food inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is still slowing down, the trend in WPI food inflation has reversed, suggesting price pressures may return in the near term. (ANI)