Indian economy to grow between 6.2-6.3% in Oct-Dec quarter: SBI estimates

The official data is scheduled to be released on February 28.

The Indian economy grew by 5.4 per cent in real terms in the July-September quarter of the current financial year 2024-25. The quarterly growth was much lower than RBI's forecast of 7 per cent. In the April-June quarter too, India's GDP grew at a slower pace than was estimated by the central bank.

According to the SBI Research report, authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India said July-September GDP growth numbers were a blip.

"...patterns of demand and consumption seem buoyant in Q3 (October-December) as are capex trends... India Inc. exhibits better EBIDTA and corporate GVA (gross value added)," the research report read.

Despite upheavals in global geopolitics, and trade-supply chains being susceptible to winds of re-globalization, Indian economy has been leaning against the winds, it asserted.

The October-December GDP estimates of SBI Research impinged upon its in-house developed 'Nowcasting Model' that leverages 36 high-frequency indicators.

Further, presuming no major revisions announced in the erstwhile Q1 and Q2 figures by National Statistical Office (NSO), it estimates the 2024-25 full year GDP at 6.3 per cent.

"Continuing the momentum, a healthy rural economy is further reinforcing stability and sustains momentum in other sectors even as rural agriculture wage growth is consistent and domestic tractor sales and rabi crop sown have picked up momentum," it said.

Capital expenditure or capex, according to SBI Research, is showing improvement in Q3 with majority of the states' capex as per cent of Budget estimate (BE) being lower in 2024-25 but embracing a momentum in Q3 -- which augurs well for the future developments, it said.

"The slowdown in Q3CY24 - down by intensifying geopolitical developments, supply chain disruption and the consequent imported inflationary pressures - was not just for India. Despite that, India continued to remain one of the fastest growing economies," it added.

It also quoted the recent update of IMF, where IMF had projected India's growth to be at 6.5 per cent for both 2024-25 and 2025-26 -- on the back of robust domestic demand, infrastructure support and governments' strategic policy interventions

It supplemented that leading indicators show strong upward movement across all domains including

India's GDP grew by an impressive 8.2 per cent during the financial year 2023-24 and continued to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew by 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22.

The Reserve Bank in its latest monetary policy had cut India's growth forecast for 2024-25 to 6.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent. The government expects 6.4 per cent growth for the current fiscal.

In 2025-26, the Indian economy is projected to grow between 6.3 per cent and 6.8 per cent, as noted in the Economic Survey presented on January 31. The survey document highlights that the country's economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by a stable external account, fiscal consolidation, and private consumption. (ANI)