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Sugarcane production in the country declined by 14 per cent in the sugar season year (SSY) 2025 compared to last year, which may lead to missing the estimates for SSY25, says a report by Centrum.
The report noted that for the current season, industry analysts expect India's total sugar production to be around 27 MMT, falling short of the earlier street estimate of 28 MMT. This would mark a significant drop from the 31.8 MMT produced in SSY24. It said, "There is nearly a 14 per cent decrease in sugar production compared to the previous year, which can be attributed to higher diversion towards ethanol and lower cane availability." The report highlighted that the year-on-year (YoY) drop amounts to approximately 2 million metric tonnes (MMT), with total production at 13.1 MMT, down from 15.1 MMT in the previous season. It also noted that Maharashtra (MH), one of the largest sugar-producing states, has witnessed a sharp 19 per cent YoY decline in production this season, primarily due to a 13 per cent YoY fall in cane availability during the past fortnight and a 17 per cent drop for the season. In comparison, Uttar Pradesh (UP) has reported a relatively smaller 7 per cent decline in sugar production despite slightly higher crushing, indicating a greater diversion of sugarcane towards ethanol. The report also highlighted that nationwide, sugarcane crushing has fallen by 8 per cent to 148 MMT so far this season, down from 161 MMT in the same period last year. While the overall performance has slightly improved over the past fortnight, thanks to better output from regions outside Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, the cumulative decline remains significant. However, the report noted that the Government of India (GoI) is considering an export quota of 1 MMT. This move is expected to achieve favourable realizations due to the depreciation of the rupee and, more importantly, provide support to domestic sugar prices. The report also shared that sugar prices have continued their upward trend, rising by an additional Rs 1,000-Rs 1,500 per ton in UP, now reaching Rs 39,500-Rs 40,000 per ton. This is likely to provide a significant boost for the industry. (ANI)
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