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The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continue to influence Indian stock markets however the extent of their impact on major indices has reduced over time, says a report by ICICI Mutual Fund.
The report attributed this decline in sensitivity to the strengthening of India's economy, which has made the markets more resilient to transient FPI flows. It said, "Though Indian markets continue to remain sensitive to FPI flows, the extent to which it is impacted has gone down". The report also highlighted that FPIs, traditionally a significant source of short-term capital in emerging economies like India, have recently been selling off their holdings in Indian markets. This sell-off has brought large-cap stock valuations to more reasonable levels compared to mid- and small-cap stocks. The report also expressed a preference for large-cap schemes over mid- and small-cap schemes, stating that large caps are likely to benefit the most if FPIs return to the markets. "The current sell-off by FPIs has made large cap valuations reasonable compared to mid and small caps" it added. However, the report also cautioned that overall market valuations are not cheap at the moment. It mentioned that the rising geopolitical tensions and weak macroeconomic indicators in the US, such as a high fiscal deficit, ballooning debt, and a significant current account deficit, are contributing to near-term market volatility. The report noted that the ability of the newly elected Republican administration in the US to address these challenges will be closely watched. The global economic environment is also influencing FPI flows. In October 2024, China's stimulus measures to boost its economy and the anticipated strength of the US economy, following the Republican Party's re-election, led to significant FPI outflows from emerging markets, including India. Slowdown in the corporate earnings in India further dampened investor sentiment, as high valuations coupled with below-par earnings have raised concerns about a potential slowdown in growth. Despite these challenges, the report remained optimistic about India's long-term growth story. The report describes the current FPI sell-off as a transient phase and expects FPIs to return soon. While the equity markets may witness intermittent volatility, the structural strengths of the Indian economy are expected to sustain long-term growth. (ANI)
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